Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

[Whispri]

Actually, scratch that, I'll just repeat the bet offer once for anyone. So yeah: This I'm offering this bet a second time if anyone wants it:

I'll bet a single quatloo that Wanda will become Chief Caster of a Side other than Gobwin Knob during Book Zero.

Round numbers, hope, hope.

[drachefly]

OK, I'll bite.

[Whispri]

BTW, it seems that you've miscounted the number of quatloos I have outstanding:

Whispri is at 20q and has 59q outstanding
~~~~
0beron (zero) bet Whispri 5q that Wanda will not make Master Class before reaching FAQ.
~~~~
Whispri bet me 10q that Wanda creates at least one Golem that is powerful enough to count as a Heavy, without the use of Scrolls, prior to Book 1.
~~~~
Mrtyuh bet Whispri 10q that Cubbins will become the first decrypted caster.
~~~~
Whispri bet me 10q that Wanda poses as a different type of Caster while serving at Faq.
~~~~
I bet whispri my 50q to his 2q that Wanda doesn't pose as another type of caster at any point while at FAQ. This is without regard to success or failure. In no case does a joke count. Attempting to fool any of the casters, warlords, or Banhammer even for a moment counts; for others, trying for, say, a minute. (I include this exception since fooling regular soldiers is much easier and has many fewer consequences and would not be generally the same sort of endeavor)
~~~~
Nnelg bet Whispri 5q that Parson does not get to meet any non-GK warlords in person by the end of Book 2.
~~~~
Sixty bet Whispri 10q that Jillian's yellow dwagon gets converted by Stanley when he attacks. If it dies before then or something else happens to it, Whispri wins.
~~~~
Itoh bets Whispri 20q that Charlescomm or a side allied (at least informally) with Charlescomm gains possession of the Arkenpliers by the end of book 2 (not counting a CC alliance with GK)
~~~~
Itoh bets Whispri 15q that Charlescomm or a side allied (at least informally) with Charlescomm gains possession of the Arkenhammer by the end of book 2 (not counting a CC alliance with GK)
~~~~
Whispri bet bladestorm and me 1q each that Wanda will become Chief Caster of a Side other than Gobwin Knob during Book Zero.

It all adds up to 89q outstanding by my count.

[drachefly]

I checked everything over. A few 'outstanding' counts were off, but as far as I can tell (and it's possible I missed something) the actual scores were correct.

[drachefly]

I offer a 5q bet that Jack survives this turn.

I offer a 5q bet that if Jack does croak this turn, he is eventually decrypted (and if he's not croaked this turn, bet is off)

[bladestorm]

I offer a 5q bet that Jack survives this turn.

I offer a 5q bet that if Jack does croak this turn, he is eventually decrypted (and if he's not croaked this turn, bet is off)

I'll accept the second bet. I think Parson will do whatever he can to prevent Jack from becoming one of Wanda's toys. We may even get a klog about ways to prevent a body from being uncroaked/decrypted.

[youngstormlord]

I bet 10q that Wanda will either shoot or stab Olive in the back in the next update, while Olive is preoccupied with Jill. Any takers?

[bladestorm]

I bet 10q that Wanda will either shoot or stab Olive in the back in the next update, while Olive is preoccupied with Jill. Any takers?

Accepted

[Whispri]

Nnelg bet Whispri 5q that Parson does not get to meet any non-GK warlords in person by the end of Book 2.

Well he's met Slately for one.

[drachefly]

Do we agree that Sylvia dusted in the previous update? That'd resolve a few bets.

[Xeadra]

I bet 50 q that Parson will become the Ruler of a side before the end of the comic.

[bladestorm]

I bet 50 q that Parson will become the Ruler of a side before the end of the comic.

Can I get clarification of 'end of the comic'?

[youngstormlord]

It appears that I have lost my bet.

I bet 10q that Wanda will either shoot or stab Olive in the back in the next update, while Olive is preoccupied with Jill. Any takers?

Accepted

That means that I'm at -10q. Double or nothing that Wanda will shoot or stab Olive in the back or shoot her broomstick to make her fall in one of the next updates.

[drachefly]

I bet 50 q that Parson will become the Ruler of a side before the end of the comic.

Can I get clarification of 'end of the comic'?

I'll consider the comic over if any of the following occur:
1) Rob says it's over
2) there is no room for sequels (e.g. as wrapped up as the end of RotJ)
3) the comic hasn't updated in 6 months

[bladestorm]

It appears that I have lost my bet.

I bet 10q that Wanda will either shoot or stab Olive in the back in the next update, while Olive is preoccupied with Jill. Any takers?

Accepted

That means that I'm at -10q. Double or nothing that Wanda will shoot or stab Olive in the back or shoot her broomstick to make her fall in one of the next updates.

Make it one of the next two updates, and I'll take it.

[bladestorm]

You'd better offer short odds on that, I fear. Unless you count 'already dead' as a loss.

I offer 5q that Sylvia croaks this battle.

I'll take that. She's got Fate armour and a huge crush on Parson as an instrument of Fate.

I'll concede this one. If she shows up later, I SO want my quatloo back.

[drachefly]

Of course - though since you conceded I won't pay out double, just reverse the outcome.

Mrtyuh's bet that Parson x Sylvia will be a thing is pretty much resolved, but I'll wait for his word before calling it so as to avoid a repeat of last time.

[Nnelg]

Slately's remains were destroyed to prevent decryption so I believe that one is settled?

We aren't 100% sure that they actually got around to destroying Slately's remains. It does seem very very likey, yes.

I'm perfectly fine with waiting until the clone goes poof.


Also, you seem to be missing this open bet:

• 5q that Parson does not get to meet any non-GK warlords in person by the end of Book 2.

I'm not entirely sure that the King counts as a warlord, let alone his clone. I'm open to discussion, though.

[MarbitChow]

I'll concede the Clone Slately vs. Decrypted. Even if the original's body isn't destroyed, Wanda has no way to get into the hex this turn - even if they take it over AND create a new side to reopen the portal, Clonely is already dead in that scenario.

[Whispri]

Also, you seem to be missing this open bet:

• 5q that Parson does not get to meet any non-GK warlords in person by the end of Book 2.

I'm not entirely sure that the King counts as a warlord, let alone his clone. I'm open to discussion, though.

Slately MkII is a King, who is not a Caster, ergo he is a Warlord. And Parson met him. So yeah, bet resolved.