Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

[Whispri]

I was just thinking that a Shockamancer was rather unlikey to be next, what with the confrontation in the Magick Kingdom being ongoing. So, low stake.

That said, if you want to reset this pool and start over with fixed bids, I'm fine with it.

[effataigus]

any argument involving ratios is always going to favour the minimum investment

Well, "return for the investment" implies a discussion of ratios to me, so I'm glad we agree

Maximizing potential return is never a safe betting strategy... leads to dumping all of your money on a single square in roulette.

I recommend taking a different argument if you're trying to disagree: specifically that this system is designed for people that have some kind of conviction about who the next mancer is going to be, and aren't just playing the odds.

That said, if you want to reset this pool and start over with fixed bids, I'm fine with it.

Same.

[bladestorm]

That said, if you want to reset this pool and start over with fixed bids, I'm fine with it.

Same.

I'll just dump the whole thing. It was supposed to be something fun to do while we wait for the next updates to reveal the next caster, not some mathematical undertaking and argument about the best approach. I just picked one I thought was likely and threw some quatloo at it. No convictions, no analysis of ratios, no min/maxing...just some fun at the expense of a few quatloo.

[drachefly]

Pools are essentially parimutuel betting. Early entrants in parimutuel are at a significant disadvantage. This is why doing it 'proper' with exclusive fixed-size entries and requiring exact hits is my preferred method.

Hmm. Fixed size, but not necessarily equal.

Like, we could say that since we judge date-a-mancer to be unlikely, it only costs 3q to enter, while shockamancer is 6q and predictamancer is 10q etc.

Basically, fix the odds ratios at the start, if not the exact odds. And if the house takes all the unclaimed bets, then the exact odds are fixed. I'd be okay with that, but it sounds like a lot of work to set up.

[bladestorm]

Okay, revamped the next named/identified magick user prediction system. 1Q buys you one square. Only one person can claim the square, and you can only claim one square per 24 hour period. You can claim more than one square, so long as the 24 hours from your previous claim has lapsed. so, for me to spend all of my 10Q, it's going to take me 10 days, but I have 10 different magick users to increase my odds of actually winning (just in case Rob throws us some oddball discipline). This also makes it so that one person can't claim a huge block all at once, giving those who may not log in to check this until many hours later a chance to get in on the action and have favourable choices.

To qualify as identified, if it is in a text update, we need name and discipline; if it is in a comic update, we need the name and discipline attached to the image (ex. We know Hubble is a Lookamancer, but we don't know what he looks like. If we get his image, that qualifies. We know the carnymancers that came in with Jojo since that group has been referred to as carnymancers, but we don't know their names. If one gets called by name, that counts.)

Just to make things more interesting, I'll throw 10 of my own quatloo into the pot on top of whatever quatloo get added in. If anyone else wants to up the ante, that can be accommodated. This should appeal to those who like to gamble a little, and those who only want to make a minimum investment.


1 - Findamancer
2 - Predictamancer (claimed by effataigus)
3 - Mathemancer
4 - Turnamancer (claimed by Nnelg)
5 - Dollamancer
6 - Weirdomancer (claimed by drachefly)
7 - Dirtamancer
8 - Changemancer (claimed by effataigus)
9 - Dittomancer
10 - Lookamancer (claimed by bladestorm)
11 - Thinkamancer (claimed by Whispri)
12 - Foolamancer
13 - Florist
14 - Signamancer
15 - Date-a-mancer
16 - Shockamancer (claimed by Whispri)
17 - Croakamancer
18 - Hat Magician
19 - Carnymancer (claimed by drachefly)
20 - Rhyme-o-mancer
21 - Luckamancer
22 - Healomancer
23 - Moneymancer (claimed by bladestorm)

Total Pot - 19 (9 bids + 10 from bladestorm)(+3 pending from effataigus)

[Whispri]

I s'pose I'll claim the Shockamancer bet again.

[drachefly]

I don't understand this system.

[bladestorm]

I don't understand this system.

Formatting would probably help greatly.
Okay, formatting didn't work anywhere near what I wanted, so I redid the whole table into a straight line.

Buyin is 1Q, and you can pick any of the unclaimed casters. At the time of this edit, that means you can claim any caster except shockamancer and lookamancer, since those two have been claimed. After 24 hours (from the time of the timestamp on your post claiming a spot), you can bid on another selection.
At 3:05 Whispri claimed box 16 for the shockamancer; at 3:05 tomorrow, should he wish to do so and provided no one else has already claimed it, he could also bid another 1Q to claim box 11 for the Thinkamancer. That means that if either a Thinkamancer or a Shockamancer is the next caster to be identified, Whispri wins the entire pot.

That help any?

[effataigus]

I like it... this way you increase your odds of winning when you increase your wager. It makes it more about what you know about Erfworld than how well you understand the bet mechanics. People like me can still "play the odds" (thinking now about there being a lot of unnamed predictamancers, thinkamancers, and carnymancers standing around) without "gaming the system." It also encourages getting in early rather than late, which is probably also a good thing.

I'd like to throw in 1 quatloo on predictamancer if I may. To keep the math easy, I'll also throw in 4 more bonus quatloos like Blade, except every day that passes without this being resolved I'll use one of the bonus ones to buy another square. If I lose, then I'll still owe the winner all 5 regardless of how many squares I've managed to snag... even if I can't ultimately buy a square because the grid is filled... a small incentive for folks to move fast.

[drachefly]

I'll take carnymancer, then.

[Nnelg]

Good, now that the system has been fixed up a bit, I'll take Turnamancer.

[Whispri]

For the sake of the sanctity of the example, I'll claim the Thinkamancer bet.

[effataigus]

Changeamancer... now I'm picking the one I want rather than the one I expect

[drachefly]

Weeeirdomancer (it's been a day since I took carny)

[bladestorm]

I'll take Moneymancer. Tram is gonna need some sort of magical support as the new king, to obvious choices are either moneymancer (increased funds) or turnamancer (increased production).

[drachefly]

We have had named in Inner Peace 54: Maxwell, a thinkamancer, and Tina, a turnamancer, and then more I'm sure we haven't seen before. Have both of those been named before? I think Tina was, but wasn't confirmed as a turnamancer.

[Whispri]

This was the first mention of Maxwell, I searched the wiki to be certain.

[effataigus]

We have had named in Inner Peace 54: Maxwell, a thinkamancer, and Tina, a turnamancer, and then more I'm sure we haven't seen before. Have both of those been named before? I think Tina was, but wasn't confirmed as a turnamancer.

Interesting... since the requirement that they be present in the scene was removed with the second iteration of the bet... this seems to have been resolved... but I'd buy arguments that the pot should go to Whispri(for Maxwell), arguments that it should go to Nnelg (since Tina was all but confirmed to be a Turnamancer just before Maxwell was explicitly called a moneymancer), or perhaps arguments that it should be split by a bunch of us (since this update named at least 3 of ours). Anyway, I believe I owe someone 5 Quatloos... Blade, you're impartial and the contest's creator... what say you?

[bladestorm]

Thinkamancer it is.

That was a short pool.

[Nnelg]

Thinkamancer it is.

That was a short pool.

What, I don't get half the pot?

(Don't worry, it's all good.)