Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Speculation, discoveries, complaints, accusations, praise, and all other Erfworld discussion.

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Sun Nov 18, 2012 9:10 am

As in I give you 1000 q if that occurs and you give me 1q if it doesn't? SURE.
User avatar
drachefly
 
Posts: 1592
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 11:36 pm

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby bladestorm » Mon Nov 19, 2012 5:02 pm

10Q that Charlie is a Carnymancer.
bladestorm
 
Posts: 665
Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 10:11 pm

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Mon Nov 19, 2012 6:22 pm

I'll take that, actually. As compelling as the arguments for it are, I have a hunch.
User avatar
drachefly
 
Posts: 1592
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 11:36 pm

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby bladestorm » Mon Nov 19, 2012 8:27 pm

15Q that we still do not know what the fourth Arkentool is by the close of book 2.
bladestorm
 
Posts: 665
Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 10:11 pm

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby mantimeforgot » Tue Nov 20, 2012 4:41 am

5 Q that the Arkendish is capable of grabbing the loyalty of Archons the way the Arkenhammer is capable of grabbing the loyalty of dwagons. (Charlie was majorly distressed by the apparent change in loyalty when Wanda decrypted the Archons and we know from the various princes of Jetstone that their original loyalties and desires remain largely intact; they love Charlie in a way that suggests supernatural influence, especially when you consider that none of them have ever actually seen Charlie).

MTF
mantimeforgot
 
Posts: 42
Joined: Sun Nov 18, 2012 4:42 am

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby Whispri » Tue Nov 20, 2012 5:02 am

Whispri wrote:
bladestorm wrote:Actually, I'll make another bet that's more finite. No combat attacks against any of GK's forces (wherever they may be, MK, GK, SR, wherever) during pages 94 through 99 of Book 2. If they make it to Page 100 with no attacks, 10q for me. If they get attacked any time during those pages, I'll pay out 20q. Bet has to be taken before page 94 is released.

I... suppose I'll take that one. Text updates inclusive I presume?

Looks like this one has been resolved.
Whispri
YOTD + Erfabet Supporter!
YOTD + Erfabet Supporter!
 
Posts: 642
Joined: Sat May 02, 2009 9:02 pm

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Tue Nov 20, 2012 10:05 am

Pool 6 round 2 is open - when is the Parson x Portal OTP consummated?

I intend to put another 10q on 98, but if someone else wants it I'll let you get in first since it'd be unfair for me to go first all the time.
User avatar
drachefly
 
Posts: 1592
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 11:36 pm

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby bladestorm » Tue Nov 20, 2012 10:28 am

drachefly wrote:Pool 6 round 2 is open - when is the Parson x Portal OTP consummated?

I intend to put another 10q on 98, but if someone else wants it I'll let you get in first since it'd be unfair for me to go first all the time.


Sticking with 99
bladestorm
 
Posts: 665
Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 10:11 pm

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby bladestorm » Tue Nov 20, 2012 10:34 am

On a side note, is there a list of unclaimed/open bets somewhere?
bladestorm
 
Posts: 665
Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 10:11 pm

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby mortissimus » Tue Nov 20, 2012 11:57 am

I'm sticking with 97.
mortissimus
 
Posts: 381
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2009 6:04 am

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby mortissimus » Tue Nov 20, 2012 4:20 pm

drachefly wrote:Oops. Fixing.


Good, but you left out me for 97 in the first round :)

bladestorm wrote:On a side note, is there a list of unclaimed/open bets somewhere?


Don't think so. For general information: Claimed and closed are in the first post in this thread.
mortissimus
 
Posts: 381
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2009 6:04 am

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Tue Nov 20, 2012 10:46 pm

bladestorm wrote:On a side note, is there a list of unclaimed/open bets somewhere?


Nope - since things develop continuously, if it's not in the last couple pages, it's implicitly a closed bet. You can offer any bet back backwards and point out the earlier one, if you're in doubt.

Mortissimus, I added your old bet.

The 'outstanding' totals may be inaccurate. I'm not too worried about them since no one's near the limit except Mrtyuh and me, and I'm WAY WAY over based on that thousand-to-one bet up there unless that's taken as being 8 years into the future.
User avatar
drachefly
 
Posts: 1592
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 11:36 pm

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Nnelg » Fri Nov 23, 2012 1:02 am

I bet 20q that Charlie was behind neither Saline IV's death nor GK's recent lack of gobwins. (If he turns out to be behind one but not the other, no quatloos are transferred.)
"The Wizard is Charlie!"
User avatar
Nnelg
 
Posts: 907
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2012 8:40 pm
Location: Internets the World of Webs

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby effataigus » Mon Nov 26, 2012 12:19 pm

Nnelg wrote:I bet 20q that Charlie was behind neither Saline IV's death nor GK's recent lack of gobwins. (If he turns out to be behind one but not the other, no quatloos are transferred.)

Accepted.
Last edited by effataigus on Thu Jun 30, 2011 9:31 am, edited 239044 times in total.
User avatar
effataigus
 
Posts: 944
Joined: Mon Mar 22, 2010 12:49 pm

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby bladestorm » Mon Nov 26, 2012 2:08 pm

Quick resolution betting time:

5Q that Jillian has a confessional moment in Book 0 Episode 53 and tells Wanda about claiming and razing Goodminton.
bladestorm
 
Posts: 665
Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 10:11 pm

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby bladestorm » Tue Nov 27, 2012 10:46 am

Next round of the betting pool. I still want 99 for when Parson emerges from the portal.
bladestorm
 
Posts: 665
Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 10:11 pm

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Tue Nov 27, 2012 10:50 am

Okay, putting that down. I'll take 97 this time.

Have major events been timed to significant page numbers before? Book 1 page 50 was the attack before the dragon donut. Book 1 page 100 was a conversation on eyebooks. Book 1 was 150 pages long exactly, so that does end with a climax.

Book 2 page 50 was Tram talking with Ossomer at the tower.

So... could go either way.
User avatar
drachefly
 
Posts: 1592
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 11:36 pm

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby mortissimus » Tue Nov 27, 2012 1:12 pm

drachefly wrote:Okay, putting that down. I'll take 97 this time.


Eh, you are betting on the page that is up now?

Anyway, I take 98 this time.
mortissimus
 
Posts: 381
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2009 6:04 am

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby bladestorm » Tue Nov 27, 2012 2:01 pm

There's several different ways we could automate his process. I'm thinking a program that a logged in user makes the proposal, fills in a field for the proposed amateur prediction, a field for the quatloo amount, and a field for the odds. That populates a table of all open predictions, from which other users can claim that bet. That in turn populates a table of accepted bets. The resolve process would be harder to automate. We'd need some sort of human moderation, maybe with some built-in betting functions. Withdraw prediction, resolved in favour of predictamancer, resolved in favour of acceptee, resolve in no favour, etc. It'd be nice to be able to scroll through any unaccepted predictions and see what is still on the table.
bladestorm
 
Posts: 665
Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 10:11 pm

Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby effataigus » Tue Nov 27, 2012 3:00 pm

Just saw your summary on the first page, Drachefly.. nice, and thanks for keeping up with this!

A note though: my third bet was the other way around. I'm betting Charlie was behind both... he's betting that Charlie was behind neither... the bet is null if Charlie was behind one but not the other (was my reading).

Also, I don't remember what I've posted that hasn't been accepted, so all of my offers on the table that weren't accepted are now off. Just found out that Myrtuh accepted one of mine almost a half year after I posted it! Nothing changed in the interim though, so I'll honor it.
Last edited by effataigus on Thu Jun 30, 2011 9:31 am, edited 239044 times in total.
User avatar
effataigus
 
Posts: 944
Joined: Mon Mar 22, 2010 12:49 pm

PreviousNext

Return to Everything Else Erfworld

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 2 guests

cron