Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

[Arky]

If I put 20q on Olive turning out to be Charlie, will anyone give me some good odds against?

[TazTheTerrible]

If I put 20q on Olive turning out to be Charlie, will anyone give me some good odds against?

I'll take that if you're taking even odds.

[drachefly]

Oberon - Fixed. Thought I handled that one months ago. May have closed instead of submitting, or something.

[Oberon]

Oberon - Fixed. Thought I handled that one months ago. May have closed instead of submitting, or something.

Awesome, and thanks. But if further revelations occur, please note that I've always maintained that Mrtyuh should be released from his payment, and I won't begrudge it if the bet needs to be either nullified or reversed in the future.

EDIT: Also, it appears that no one is willing to take my two recent bets.

[Whispri]

I'll bet someone 10q that Jillian's yellow dwagon gets converted by Stanley when he attacks. If it dies before then or something else happens to it, the other person wins.

Well something's happened. I don't mind waiting for further events, in fact I consider it quite reasonble to do so... but Gillian's last set of mounts haven't been seen since her first capture, so at what point would we declare Crapsack lost?

[Sixty]

Well, I would wait, because crapsack is still clearly with her and alive at the current time. Are you asking what if his fate just ends up never being explicitly stated?

[Whispri]

Well, I would wait, because crapsack is still clearly with her and alive at the current time. Are you asking what if his fate just ends up never being explicitly stated?

Well yes, Crapsack is alive. But they're stuck in a Haffaton trap (ergo Dwagon sandwiches) and no word has been given of the fate of the WRECD's Gwiffons, the same thing could happen with Crapsack. At what point do we say there's no chance of Crapsack meeting Stanley if Gillian escapes without him or knowledge of him?

[Sixty]

Sure, if he just disappears with an unknown fate you get the bet.

[bladestorm]

I'll wager 20 quatloos that Jetstone does not fall this day. "Day" in this context means that the turns of all involved parties have been taken and ended. I'm not going to speculate as to who will go first on the next day, but in TBFGK it was always Charlescomm, followed by GK, so we should have some solid measure of when the day has ended.

I'll wager 20 quatloos that Parson and at least but not limited to Wanda do pass through the Jetstone portal. This does not have to be together, but it will be within this day as defined above.

I don't have the quatloos to take either of these. I'd at least be willing to accept the latter. Parson's battles have to be almost unwinnable for his genius to shine. Having Wanda there would bring it too close to even odds of victory; therefor, in order to utilize Parson's full potential, he can't have the use of Wanda during the next battle. The only caster involved is going to be Ace (and maybe Cubbins if he is somehow no longer incapacitated), so caster aren't going to be a necessity in this battle. Limited space, limited time (Sylvia's probably going to amp this up by blazing the garrison), 0 move, enemy pressing in on their own territory, he has less troops, he has less bonuses to stack, and he doesn't know what the boop happened while he was trying to do his sprint through the MK. Plus, it doesn't matter if he wipes the floor with the current opponent, since the heir designate is on his way out of the city, can't be followed this turn, and the current heir depops at dawn anyway. That's closer to what Parson thrives on. Having Wanda there with the Pliers -- she'd bend them over, spank their boopes, and make then say "Thank you Mistress, may I have another" <Decrypt> (Why, yes, you may).

[Arky]

If I put 20q on Olive turning out to be Charlie, will anyone give me some good odds against?

I'll take that if you're taking even odds.

Nah, I don't think it's a 50-50. I need some odds on this one, it's obviously loony!

[bladestorm]

I'll wager 20 quatloos that Jetstone does not fall this day. "Day" in this context means that the turns of all involved parties have been taken and ended. I'm not going to speculate as to who will go first on the next day, but in TBFGK it was always Charlescomm, followed by GK, so we should have some solid measure of when the day has ended.

I'll wager 20 quatloos that Parson and at least but not limited to Wanda do pass through the Jetstone portal. This does not have to be together, but it will be within this day as defined above.

I don't have the quatloos to take either of these. I'd at least be willing to accept the latter. Parson's battles have to be almost unwinnable for his genius to shine. Having Wanda there would bring it too close to even odds of victory; therefor, in order to utilize Parson's full potential, he can't have the use of Wanda during the next battle. The only caster involved is going to be Ace (and maybe Cubbins if he is somehow no longer incapacitated), so caster aren't going to be a necessity in this battle. Limited space, limited time (Sylvia's probably going to amp this up by blazing the garrison), 0 move, enemy pressing in on their own territory, he has less troops, he has less bonuses to stack, and he doesn't know what the boop happened while he was trying to do his sprint through the MK. Plus, it doesn't matter if he wipes the floor with the current opponent, since the heir designate is on his way out of the city, can't be followed this turn, and the current heir depops at dawn anyway. That's closer to what Parson thrives on. Having Wanda there with the Pliers -- she'd bend them over, spank their boopes, and make then say "Thank you Mistress, may I have another" <Decrypt> (Why, yes, you may).

Actually... I just re-read the first post, so I do have enough quatloo debt space that I can take both of these (plus apparently another 50, but I am gonna use those sparingly).

[Oberon]

Woot! I have two more bets pending!

Also, I'll give Arky 2:3 odds (you bet 20Q, if you win you get 30Q from me, if I win I get 20Q from you) if his "Olive is Charlie" bet is still open.

[drachefly]

Woot! I have two more bets pending!

Also, I'll give Arky 2:3 odds (you bet 20Q, if you win you get 30Q from me, if I win I get 20Q from you) if his "Olive is Charlie" bet is still open.

Sweeter offer: my 50q to anyone's 5q, that Olive isn't Charlie.

[bladestorm]

Woot! I have two more bets pending!

Also, I'll give Arky 2:3 odds (you bet 20Q, if you win you get 30Q from me, if I win I get 20Q from you) if his "Olive is Charlie" bet is still open.

Sweeter offer: my 50q to anyone's 5q, that Olive isn't Charlie.

So I only am risking 5 on that? And if Olive turns out to be Charlie, I get 50? That's a sucker bet, but I'll take it. That would totally destroy Charlie's enigma, but as a long term opponent, that would put Parson up against a level 12+ Florist attuned to the Arkendish. That would eliminate nearly every conventional tactic used in Erfworld, which makes it very much the kind of odds Parson needs to be at his best. It'd also tie in why the hippemancers so readily got on board with the warlord that would stop Charlie. Bet accepted, as a kind of long-term investment. That kind of reveal is way down the plot road.

[Oberon]

Aaaaaactually I would suspect JoJo WAS involved in the Kingworld link.

I'll wager 10Q that Jojo was not a part of the Kingworld (*ptui!*) spell.

End date to be the end of Book 2.

Edit: Oops, corrected.

[0beron]

Aaaaaactually I would suspect JoJo WAS involved in the Kingworld link.

I'll wager 10Q that Jojo was not a part of the Kingworld (*ptui!*) spell.

End date to be the end of Book 0.

Accepted in principle, however I'm confused about why Book 0.....since it happened in Book 2...

[Itoh]

I'll bet 20q that Charlescomm or a side allied with Charlescomm gains possession of the Arkenpliers by the end of book 2

I'll also bet 15q that Charlescomm or a side allied with Charlescomm gains possession of the Arkenhammer by the end of book 2.

These would resolve in my favor even if Charlescomm isn't formmally allied with the side(such as the relationship between Charlescomm and Jetstone right now)

[Whispri]

I'll bet 20q that Charlescomm or a side allied with Charlescomm gains possession of the Arkenpliers by the end of book 2

I'll also bet 15q that Charlescomm or a side allied with Charlescomm gains possession of the Arkenhammer by the end of book 2.

These would resolve in my favor even if Charlescomm isn't formmally allied with the side(such as the relationship between Charlescomm and Jetstone right now)

I'll take those.

[0beron]

I'll bet 20q that Charlescomm or a side allied with Charlescomm gains possession of the Arkenpliers by the end of book 2

I'll also bet 15q that Charlescomm or a side allied with Charlescomm gains possession of the Arkenhammer by the end of book 2.

These would resolve in my favor even if Charlescomm isn't formmally allied with the side(such as the relationship between Charlescomm and Jetstone right now)

I see a potential loophole in both of these....what if Gobwin Knob becomes allied with Charlie?

[Itoh]

I'll bet 20q that Charlescomm or a side allied with Charlescomm gains possession of the Arkenpliers by the end of book 2

I'll also bet 15q that Charlescomm or a side allied with Charlescomm gains possession of the Arkenhammer by the end of book 2.

These would resolve in my favor even if Charlescomm isn't formmally allied with the side(such as the relationship between Charlescomm and Jetstone right now)

I see a potential loophole in both of these....what if Gobwin Knob becomes allied with Charlie?

If the two sides ally and their alliance isn't broken by the end of book 2, I'll concede.