Book 2 – Page 87

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Re: Book 2 – Page 87

Postby effataigus » Thu Sep 06, 2012 5:03 pm

Random thought about TMK... that place is actually a city of some kind, or has its own rules. Field units are disbanded when a queen dies, but casters in TMK live on.

*slow measured clapping* Last horse.. yadda yadda.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 87

Postby bladestorm » Thu Sep 06, 2012 5:10 pm

effataigus wrote:(especially if GK is sneak-attacked and Parson finds himself a new vassal to the queen of Goodminton).


That would definitely make things a lot more interesting. Though maybe not as much as if Wanda just went off on her own, and Parson was still working for GK, and had to battle against her.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 87

Postby drachefly » Thu Sep 06, 2012 5:32 pm

oslecamo2_temp wrote:
drachefly wrote:Without a CWL, they'd be dead anyway.


CWL keeping them alive? You mean the guy that knocked himself out multiple pages ago running near the enemy siege after shooting his own warlords? Unless uncoscious leaders still provide a leadership bonus, but that would be somewhat bizzarre.


A) It is difficult to base your decisions on events that have not yet occurred. Use the expected benefit instead, or an ensemble of possibilities.
B) It seems you are blaming him for his officers disobeying orders. Moreover, this would have occurred whether or not he was CWL. Indeed, the rout there would have been (slightly) worse.

Oberon wrote:
drachefly wrote:Simply having a CWL is so crucial that going without one is completely inviable.
Doesn't seem to be non viable for Charlie. :D


For Jetstone in particular. They use lots of low-value infantry. Leadership is crucial. Similarly, Transylvito. And with GK in Spacerock, since most of their force is decrypted locals, they need their bonuses.

NYbear wrote:
0beron wrote: So yes, Maggie DID force him into this.
No one forces you to do anything.


A) They can force you not to do things - like what Parson actually wanted to do.
B) Coercion is a thing, mmkay? Your statement is absolutist to the point of being irritating.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 87

Postby tanonev » Thu Sep 06, 2012 5:44 pm

I choose to reconcile my tactical judgement with the knowledge that Parson is a schmott guy by believing that either:
1. The mechanics of Erfworld and the bracer have told Parson something that doesn't jive with my intuition for the relative value of a +1 on a unit that is around a 20.


It actually isn't all that rare for a single +1 bonus to have a huge effect on the outcome of a game like this. Clay may have been oversimplifying combat by reducing it to opposing die rolls, but it makes a good case study:

Suppose you have two armies set against each other, where each unit is represented by a d6. Suppose Side A has 10 units, but each of those units has a bonus of +4 to their roll. Meanwhile, Side B has 10000 units, but each of those units has no bonus (+0) to their roll. If we go through the process of choosing a unit from each side, rolling their dice against each other (rerolling ties) and croaking the loser, and then repeating until one side is depleted, we would expect Side A to lose all their units, and Side B to lose 340 units, having 9660 units left over. But consider what happens when we add just one more +1 to Side A: Now Side A's units can't possibly lose the die roll, so the final outcome is that Side A retains ALL their units while Side B loses ALL of theirs. In this setting, one extra +1 bonus to all units on a side turns the outcome from an almost guaranteed loss to an actually guaranteed win.

Even with more complicated rules (natural 6's always win, for example), we can still observe that an additive bonus to die rolls actually has a multiplicative effect on expected output. Furthermore, the higher the existing bonus, the higher the multiplier for each subsequent bonus (going from +4 to +5 in the example above has far more effect than going from +0 to +1). With the already substantial bonuses in play thanks to Wanda et al, it is not at all unreasonable for Parson's apparently meager CWL bonus to have a huge impact on the outcome of the fight.

EDIT: There's a decent chance that this observation is exactly what Parson realized in Book 1 when he was mentioning how increasing army size was additive, while stacking army bonuses was multiplicative.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 87

Postby Salem » Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:47 pm

effataigus wrote:
Salem wrote:But that's my point in short and in a rush.

Gotcha this time... yeah, there's a million ways this can go down, and I'm betting in a bunch of them Parson is very glad that he took the portal (especially if GK is sneak-attacked and Parson finds himself a new vassal to the queen of Goodminton).
I'm just guessing in around 50% of them Parson stayed behind and is currently sending Wanda a thinkagram saying "Grats on sacking the city. Now decrypt everything you can find and pray that Charlie doesn't do anything too weird on his turn."
Of course, my theoretical Parsons are still in the dark about GMTTA and Charlie. Sometimes you put the wrong number into the wrong equation and still get the right answer. ;)
Also, I am risk averse to the point of nigh-cowardliness in most strategy games. I imagine I would be even more so if it weren't a game

I tend to play defence too. I'm a slow player. I'd be a Charlie unfortuantely, sooooo not a Charlie fan. Yet, I think it being real would make those foolish decisions easier, for me at least.

Though, wasn't Maggie out of or almost out of juice, and wouldn't that have made Parson nigh blind and unable to give advice had someone pulled another fast one like King World?

But yeah, I definetely wouldn't know enough to say good or bad, right or wrong, decision on this one. I just think there are a lot of factors and they had not been getting love. I think a lot of his reason was, he felt for future campaigns they needed a CWL. (Also, in a way an addition that adds to every unit IS multiplicitive and can be better than a multiplicitve, certainly it's amazing WITH them. I think that's how the bat thing worked, Bats 1-1-1-1-1. Ceaser +8 Warlord or some such 9-9-9-9-9-9. Ceaser multiplicitve bat bonus x3 27-27-27-27-27-27-27. Certainly the additive especially with weak units is a HUGE bonus, larger than multiplicitve.)
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Re: Book 2 – Page 87

Postby Nnelg » Thu Sep 06, 2012 9:24 pm

I think the way bonuses were "multiplicative" is that you multiply the bonus per unit times the number of units you have for the net bonus. The point is that since you'll almost always have hundreds of units, adding a few points of bonus adds a whole lot more than a few more units.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 87

Postby the_tick_rules » Fri Sep 07, 2012 12:24 am

So anyone have a guess what the double surviving means? Does he have a temp lifespan or something? Was that scene of the dish meaning charlie is tapping bunny or something?
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Re: Book 2 – Page 87

Postby multilis » Fri Sep 07, 2012 1:22 am

the_tick_rules wrote:So anyone have a guess what the double surviving means? Does he have a temp lifespan or something? Was that scene of the dish meaning charlie is tapping bunny or something?

In games similar to Erfworld, some spells last for the duration of the current battle or duration of current turn.

Eg Age of Wonders 2... martyr and animate dead, the units die at end of current battle. Debuffs like poison and curse last till start of your next turn.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 87

Postby Lamech » Fri Sep 07, 2012 1:48 am

the_tick_rules wrote:So anyone have a guess what the double surviving means? Does he have a temp lifespan or something? Was that scene of the dish meaning charlie is tapping bunny or something?

Charlie was tapping bunny. The double presumably has a temporary life although we aren't sure yet. Might be a 'till end of turn. It might end at the start of Jetstones new turn. Or it might have a number of turn. Another possibility is it burns juice from the dittomancer and will last as long as juice keeps flowing. Although in that cases to make sense with Erfworld's turn based nature I suspect juice would be used either at turn ends or when the double is doing stuff.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 87

Postby Infidel » Fri Sep 07, 2012 2:07 am

MonteCristo wrote: Second, the garrision burning could cause significant damage to GK's troops; now the benefit of decryption is that wanda can replenish lost forces by decypting the fallen enemy, but if GK takes the city then the MK portal will close and wanda will be unable to decypt the enemy;


Why are you assuming Wanda can't come back?


... i think there are even a few ways that jetstone can use the fire to their advantage... Namely they move most of their forces outside of the city but keep some soliders in the garrision doing their best to stay alive while sending some other durable troops to replace them;


By moving their forces out of the relative safety of the tower through the fire and massed attacks of the forces outside the tower?

All in all, Sylvia's burn it all plan seems very short sighted and is prone to countless errors that could turn this battle into a heavy loss for GK.


It's a go to hell plan. Every general always has a go-to-hell plan. People keep acting like it is her preferred method. But she said herself it is not something she WANTS to do, it is something she would DARE to do.



Well you always have to weigh in "does parson NEED to be there";


Parson already did say "they NEED the bonus." He's the one with the bonus they need. Ergo, whomever is the CW NEEDs to be there. He's the one with the mathamancy bracelet and who has calculated all the important factors. So we are supposed to trust his judgement in this.

YOu need to keep in account the context of poeple's statements. Namely i was responding to why parson was not a good choice for chief warlord in the first place. He doesn't need to see this battle personally in order to advise and direct it; he could have had someone else be the CW while he controls the battle by thinkagram and wanda. The only reason he needs to be there NOW is because he got stuck with the CW job.


Bad show. First, it is the writer's responsibility to write clearly so he is understood, not to berate a reader for misunderstanding. Second, because there is nothing to the context to add any validity to your assertion. If anything, it shows you are doing nothing but CYA obfuscation. If such was your intention, then you failed to convey that intent. I have now re-read your statement in whole several times, and all I see is the circular argument that "NOW" that the battle has suddenly turned south because Parson got stuck in MK, does he have to come provide tactical insight. You were not giving credit to Parson pre-calculations that he was needed on site the instant he became CW.

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Re: Book 2 – Page 87

Postby Infidel » Fri Sep 07, 2012 2:45 am

effataigus wrote:XD

Giving the opportunity =/= forcing someone to do something.

"No, your honor! He is the one that opened the liquor store. He forced me to consider robbing it!"

Nor is obligating someone to complete a task tantamount to being responsible for their actions in completing it. The government forces me to pay my taxes, but if I burn my house down for a tax break it's still arson.


That is a terrible analogy. There is no co-relation between someone going through difficulties to save lives, and another self vandalizing to avoid responsibility. Nor robbing a liquor store just because it is open. Really! wtf?

Here are the important points.
1 Wanda could have allowed the natural reassignment of responsibility but stepped in and interrupted it. AND, she made it impossible to pass it along to those better qualified by immediate presence.

2 Parson had the ability to provide tangible aid, but he had only one means to do this.

3 For all the complaints and references to the Idiot ball, the PLAN WOULD HAVE WORKED! But Wanda had to be "helpful" again and let the GMtTA know he was coming.

To make an analogy, you need to reference the important points, not ignore them.
So here is an analogy that does.

Someone Parson cares about is in a building, hurt, and likely to die without immediate medical attention. They get out one call for help, but his friend Wanda intercepts the call. She decides that the paramedics nearby aren't qualified enough and due to her overwhelming faith in his abilities, tells them Parson will take care of it. She then throws the phone into the lake so he can't evade her decision.

Parson is outside. He can shout advice like, "Apply pressure to stop the bleeding." all day, but that is not tangible aid, he has ONLY one option to provide tangible aid. To do this he has to run grab the first-aid kit and run through the TUNNEL OF FIRE! Parson is smart hand had already planned for this, he has a fire suit, everything should work out peachy.

Well, Wanda to be helpful calls out that Parson is coming. So he gets stuck in the tunnel of fire, because of a crowd of people at the other side wanting to tell him how to better use his medical supplies. Parson starts frying in his fire suit.

Now. What are the differences? Well, first of all Wanda didn't Provide an opportunity. She denied opportunity. Second, there is only one means to povide tangible aid. The only choice Parson has is whether to provide aid, or not to provide aid, but he is NOT given a choice in how to provide aid. There is only one way to get the first-aid kit into the building--the tunnel of fire. There is only one way to get Parson's bonus to Jetstone, through the MK.

Wanda forced that decision on Parson.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 87

Postby hajo » Fri Sep 07, 2012 4:12 am

Infidel wrote:1 Wanda could have allowed the natural reassignment of responsibility but stepped in and interrupted it.
..
3 .. But Wanda had to be "helpful" again and let the GMtTA know he was coming.

It was Maggie, not Wanda.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 87

Postby oslecamo2_temp » Fri Sep 07, 2012 7:36 am

drachefly wrote:
oslecamo2_temp wrote:CWL keeping them alive? You mean the guy that knocked himself out multiple pages ago running near the enemy siege after shooting his own warlords? Unless uncoscious leaders still provide a leadership bonus, but that would be somewhat bizzarre.


A) It is difficult to base your decisions on events that have not yet occurred. Use the expected benefit instead, or an ensemble of possibilities.
B) It seems you are blaming him for his officers disobeying orders. Moreover, this would have occurred whether or not he was CWL. Indeed, the rout there would have been (slightly) worse.


A)You're contradicting yourself there. There was no reason for Jetstone to sacrifice a small army worth of units just to save enough money to promote a diplomat to CWL should the big beefy guy fall, in particular when they couldn't even save enough money to promote a new heir.
B)Nope. GK's airforce would've been the one routed if Trems never was promoted to CWL. Shoot GK out of the sky whitout any diplomatic talks, call it a day.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 87

Postby drachefly » Fri Sep 07, 2012 10:32 am

oslecamo2_temp wrote:
drachefly wrote:
oslecamo2_temp wrote:CWL keeping them alive? You mean the guy that knocked himself out multiple pages ago running near the enemy siege after shooting his own warlords? Unless uncoscious leaders still provide a leadership bonus, but that would be somewhat bizzarre.


A) It is difficult to base your decisions on events that have not yet occurred. Use the expected benefit instead, or an ensemble of possibilities.
B) It seems you are blaming him for his officers disobeying orders. Moreover, this would have occurred whether or not he was CWL. Indeed, the rout there would have been (slightly) worse.


A)You're contradicting yourself there.


There is no contradiction. There is nothing the slightest bit like a contradiction. You base your decisions on predicted outcomes. You don't get to base your decisions on the actual outcomes. And what outcomes did you cite? Forseeable ones? Let's check. Being surprise-attacked by purples who were standing on the other side of a wall just as you walked by? That's an unlikely outcome, and should have low weight in consideration. That one of your best officers disobeys orders, and rushes in to fight in a fire zone, yet brings insufficient forces to pull it off, is similarly low-weighted - ESPECIALLY since we're talking about a decision from when GK was stuck in airspace, so neither of these problems would have even made sense.

oslecamo2_temp wrote:There was no reason for Jetstone to sacrifice a small army worth of units just to save enough money to promote a diplomat to CWL should the big beefy guy fall, in particular when they couldn't even save enough money to promote a new heir.


If they didn't have a CWL, then they wouldn't have crushed the ground army nearly as easily. Their air defenses - and in particular the archers would have been far less effective with only a basic leadership bonus, completely lacking the 'You have a CWL', 'CWL is in your hex' and 'You are in CWL's own stack' bonus. Read Vinnie giving Jillian a lesson about bats, and look at Jetstone's troop composition. Having a CWL is not optional for this side.

oslecamo2_temp wrote:B)Nope. GK's airforce would've been the one routed if Trems never was promoted to CWL. Shoot GK out of the sky whitout any diplomatic talks, call it a day.


That's a matter of who the CWL should be. That's up for debate. Getting the CWL bonus was NOT dispensible.
Moreover, if they'd started shooting, Parson would have started the raining men plan anyway, and it would have worked nearly as well. The diplomatic distraction was an optimization.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 87

Postby effataigus » Fri Sep 07, 2012 10:43 am

Whoa, Infidel... having a bad day?
Infidel wrote:
MonteCristo wrote: Second, the garrision burning could cause significant damage to GK's troops; now the benefit of decryption is that wanda can replenish lost forces by decypting the fallen enemy, but if GK takes the city then the MK portal will close and wanda will be unable to decypt the enemy;


Why are you assuming Wanda can't come back?

How could she get back to JS before the end of JS's turn if the portal closes?

Infidel wrote:
... i think there are even a few ways that jetstone can use the fire to their advantage... Namely they move most of their forces outside of the city but keep some soliders in the garrision doing their best to stay alive while sending some other durable troops to replace them;


By moving their forces out of the relative safety of the tower through the fire and massed attacks of the forces outside the tower?

All in all, Sylvia's burn it all plan seems very short sighted and is prone to countless errors that could turn this battle into a heavy loss for GK.


It's a go to hell plan. Every general always has a go-to-hell plan. People keep acting like it is her preferred method. But she said herself it is not something she WANTS to do, it is something she would DARE to do.

It's a go to hell plan that she is proposing long before the battle is lost... short-sighted is a reasonable description, though I would stick with needlessly self-destructive. Also, Tower is down, so I don't think JS has any more living units in there.


Infidel wrote:That is a terrible analogy.
I think Oberon ninja'd you by like, a day. XD

I stand by my response to him.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 87

Postby effataigus » Fri Sep 07, 2012 10:56 am

drachefly wrote:
oslecamo2_temp wrote:...


To be clear, you guys are arguing about whether we know for certain that promoting a new CWL costs a lot of money?

I was under the impression that we don't have any new data on this, and that the last round of arguments turned up inconclusive.

Some people also suggested that changing CWLs is free when your CWL is out of commission and expensive otherwise. This would account for the situation you're describing (promoting Trem on an empty treasury) and the observation that Parson didn't immediately get Sylvia or Ossomer promoted.

On that note, we do know that CWL can be changed without the previous CWL dying. Expensive or not, it should be worth it now:

If Parsons +1/+2 to units for being in the same hex/same stack (which would actually be a +0/+1 relative to his bonus for just being CWL anywhere with standard rounding rules) is so valuable that it is worth all of those costs of going through TMK that we already discussed, then Sylvia's +3/+6 (if I'm correctly recalling that she's a 6) should be nearly priceless.

So why didn't he order the dwagon drop and promote whichever warlord survived?
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Re: Book 2 – Page 87

Postby Salem » Fri Sep 07, 2012 11:35 am

effataigus wrote:
drachefly wrote:
oslecamo2_temp wrote:...


To be clear, you guys are arguing about whether we know for certain that promoting a new CWL costs a lot of money?

I was under the impression that we don't have any new data on this, and that the last round of arguments turned up inconclusive.

Some people also suggested that changing CWLs is free when your CWL is out of commission and expensive otherwise. This would account for the situation you're describing (promoting Trem on an empty treasury) and the observation that Parson didn't immediately get Sylvia or Ossomer promoted.

On that note, we do know that CWL can be changed without the previous CWL dying. Expensive or not, it should be worth it now:

If Parsons +1/+2 to units for being in the same hex/same stack (which would actually be a +0/+1 relative to his bonus for just being CWL anywhere with standard rounding rules) is so valuable that it is worth all of those costs of going through TMK that we already discussed, then Sylvia's +3/+6 (if I'm correctly recalling that she's a 6) should be nearly priceless.

So why didn't he order the dwagon drop and promote whichever warlord survived?

I would say from emotion. I really do think if he changed it like that, and he would need Stanley to change it, it would risk revealing what Maggie had done to him and leading to her disbandment. At this point he doesn't know Maggie is still lying to him, and even if he did I don't think that would matter.

If he asks to no longer be the chief warlord at a cost, that would be suspect as he just became it. Also, if that cost is moral it also might be a bad idea for Stanley last thing he would want is the decrypted's Mistress to suffer some kind of moral shock if all she knew was "Parson is no longer chief Sylvia is." Without a someone to tell her it's parson's plan.

And from Stanley's point of view, he already doesn't trust his chief caster who holds most of the power in his lil' empire, I doubt he wants his chief warlord to be decrypted. I think Parson or one of the Stanley loyal remaining units is best. Parson is a better option because Wanda won't sacrifice him needlessly like a pawn. Even wanda in her decrypted love would rather parson having a "1up." Stanley I believe has also seen that Parson is wary about the decrypted and assuming a caster and a natural ally can't be promoted that high, Parson is a solid choice. (Granted we know he's willing to let decrypted be CWL, which makes me imagine that the CWL is little more than bonus and whatever command power you give them.)
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Re: Book 2 – Page 87

Postby junovalkyrie » Fri Sep 07, 2012 11:46 am

drachefly wrote:
oslecamo2_temp wrote:
drachefly wrote:CWL change is already expensive, so I don't think there's any particular basis for expecting further restrictions.

If it was expensive money-wise, Slatey wouldn't have been able to promote Trems this turn, as they had already sinked all their money for their last stand.


Simply having a CWL is so crucial that going without one is completely inviable. Promoting Tramennis was a necessary expense if it was possible to do. Easily worth spending some of your troops' upkeep money.


oslecamo2_temp wrote:
drachefly wrote:Without a CWL, they'd be dead anyway.


CWL keeping them alive? You mean the guy that knocked himself out multiple pages ago running near the enemy siege after shooting his own warlords? Unless uncoscious leaders still provide a leadership bonus, but that would be somewhat bizzarre.


drachefly wrote:
oslecamo2_temp wrote:
drachefly wrote:A) It is difficult to base your decisions on events that have not yet occurred. Use the expected benefit instead, or an ensemble of possibilities.
B) It seems you are blaming him for his officers disobeying orders. Moreover, this would have occurred whether or not he was CWL. Indeed, the rout there would have been (slightly) worse.


A)You're contradicting yourself there.


There is no contradiction. There is nothing the slightest bit like a contradiction. You base your decisions on predicted outcomes. You don't get to base your decisions on the actual outcomes. And what outcomes did you cite? Forseeable ones? Let's check. Being surprise-attacked by purples who were standing on the other side of a wall just as you walked by? That's an unlikely outcome, and should have low weight in consideration. That one of your best officers disobeys orders, and rushes in to fight in a fire zone, yet brings insufficient forces to pull it off, is similarly low-weighted - ESPECIALLY since we're talking about a decision from when GK was stuck in airspace, so neither of these problems would have even made sense.


I think oslecamo's point was that if promoting someone to CWL cost so much, then a side that had already been forced to harvest some of its units to continue to pay the upkeep of others shouldn't have had enough to do it. The perceived contradiction comes from the idea that they for some reason decided to save enough money to promote someone to CWL despite having no way of knowing in advance that it would be necessary, thus "basing their decision on events that have not yet occurred" (see first set of quotes).

Not taking oslecamo's side here, BTW. I suspect that the answer is something like the mechanic effataigus mentioned where the cost to promote a CWL differs based on the circumstances.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 87

Postby bladestorm » Fri Sep 07, 2012 1:20 pm

Lamech wrote:
the_tick_rules wrote:So anyone have a guess what the double surviving means? Does he have a temp lifespan or something? Was that scene of the dish meaning charlie is tapping bunny or something?

Charlie was tapping bunny. The double presumably has a temporary life although we aren't sure yet. Might be a 'till end of turn. It might end at the start of Jetstones new turn. Or it might have a number of turn. Another possibility is it burns juice from the dittomancer and will last as long as juice keeps flowing. Although in that cases to make sense with Erfworld's turn based nature I suspect juice would be used either at turn ends or when the double is doing stuff.

I prefer the idea that the double will last as long as Lloyd sustains the juice. That sets up for a much more dramatic end to the double than it merely fading at turn's end. The double could be kept around for dozens of turns, filling in for the real king, all the way up until Lloyd gets called upon to use too much of his juice at once, concentration starts wavering, and THEN the duplicate goes *poof*.

The duplicate may even be convincing enough that it can sustain the side, with only a handful of individuals knowing that the real king is actually dead. Slately didn't seem like the sort of Ruler that routinely toured his kingdom or bothered leaving the city much. They might be able to pull it off.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 87

Postby drachefly » Fri Sep 07, 2012 1:44 pm

junovalkyrie wrote:I think oslecamo's point was that if promoting someone to CWL cost so much, then a side that had already been forced to harvest some of its units to continue to pay the upkeep of others shouldn't have had enough to do it.


Okay, that's a fair point. As I said, though, Expense comes in degrees.

If it's, say, 500 or 1000 shmuckers, that would be well within JS's day-to-day operating expenses... and though it would guarantee that some JS units would not survive to next turn because they couldn't cover all that upkeep, it would still prevent the loss of far more in combat. I agree that it can't be 25000 or something seriously large. Just big enough you don't want to do it willy-nilly.
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