Book 2 – Page 13

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Re: Book 2 – Page 13

Postby splintermute » Sun Dec 27, 2009 2:29 pm

Another way of looking at the bracer's supposed "predictamancy" power is to look at the specific question Charlie asked: "Tell me the odds that learning what happened to my Archons right now will be worth giving up those calculations in the future."

He then gave two possible reasons for the answer: "That either means that I could likely find out the information through other means, or the calculations will be highly valuable."

Perhaps the only calculation the bracer did was "What is the likelihood that Charlie will need the future calculations before he independently discovers the secret of decryption." The only factors the bracer would need to consider are how soon the secret of decryption would be made public (probably very soon, given GK's expansion rate, especially if it was something Charlie was actively investigating) vs. how soon Charlie was likely to enter a complex battle scenario that required further calculations (fairly unlikely - the only battles where Charlie had previously needed calculations were ones in which he'd stood in opposition to Parson, but this time the RCC II seemed to be pretty unlikely to hire him).
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Re: Book 2 – Page 13

Postby ftl » Sun Dec 27, 2009 11:44 pm

noxharrington wrote:But here's what is puzzling to me. So, Parson asked the bracer a question, this time, specifically saying 'we don't know what kind of caster they have.' But he would have had no idea what kind of questions Charlie might ask. Yet this is the first time we've seen the bracer produce a range of probabilities. Right? Doesn't that seem weird to anyone else?


Didn't seem weird to me, because it made sense to me that since there's a limited number of caster types, it would be quick for Parson to ask "battle odds... given they have the least useful caster of the possible ones?" "battle odds... given they have the most useful caster?" I'm assuming the bracer is still doing the same thing it's done before, and Parson is the one saying "a range".

Remember, we're not getting the bracer's results directly. We're getting Parson summarizing them.

Further, if Parson had left out his own uncertainty when asking the bracer this update's question, might it have given him a definite answer based on what caster is actually there, regardless of Parson's own ignorance of that detail?


I really, really doubt it. Remember, prior to getting the intel in the first place, the bracer was giving 99% chance of victory. The new intel changed that, a lot. If what Parson (or GK) personally know didn't matter, new intel wouldn't have changed anything.

Or are you really thinking that Parson is that oblivious of how the bracer works that he's sabotaging his own questions?
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Re: Book 2 – Page 13

Postby Sonic Screwdriver » Mon Dec 28, 2009 7:59 am

So many of our arguments concerning that bracer stem from the single exchange between Parson and Charlie, where we were informed that it can make sophisticated predictions about the future. Without that example, it's clearly limited to predictions based on the scenario as known by the user. There must be some caveat to its prediction ability, otherwise we'd see more of it, and I'm sure Parson tested it to find out what those limitations even are.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 13

Postby noxharrington » Mon Dec 28, 2009 12:14 pm

Sonic Screwdriver wrote:So many of our arguments concerning that bracer stem from the single exchange between Parson and Charlie, where we were informed that it can make sophisticated predictions about the future. Without that example, it's clearly limited to predictions based on the scenario as known by the user. There must be some caveat to its prediction ability, otherwise we'd see more of it, and I'm sure Parson tested it to find out what those limitations even are.


True. And wouldn't it be nice to know what those tests were, and what results they yielded.

If the rest of the predictions we've seen are, truly, the limits of the bracer's power, then that prediction for Charlie was a useless garbage-number, and Charlie must know much less about Mathamancy than would seem reasonable to me.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 13

Postby theseus2x » Mon Dec 28, 2009 3:44 pm

Sonic Screwdriver wrote:So many of our arguments concerning that bracer stem from the single exchange between Parson and Charlie, where we were informed that it can make sophisticated predictions about the future. Without that example, it's clearly limited to predictions based on the scenario as known by the user. There must be some caveat to its prediction ability, otherwise we'd see more of it, and I'm sure Parson tested it to find out what those limitations even are.


Good point. As shown in the latest comic with Wanda, the odds constantly shift as new information is put in. One wonders what the bracer knew in the Parson/Charlie convo that we don't.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 13

Postby Sinrus » Mon Dec 28, 2009 4:13 pm

The Bracer doesn't "know" anything, it's a machine. In this page we see Parson typing information into the bracer. Furthermore, the fact that the percentage of success changed when Ossomer's info became available means that the bracer itself doesn't know what the composition of any forces are.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 13

Postby Wender » Mon Dec 28, 2009 5:02 pm

The bracer probably fills in basic facts about the world. In terrain X, Y instances of unit Z have such and such a percentage of popping per turn. A stack of X units of type Y is this good (or bad) against another stack of units. In other words, like the other gifts he got, it fills in the kind of knowledge and ability--in this case, information--that any native Erfworld warlord would pop with.

In the case of the forces hiding within Spacerock, not even the King of Jetstone knows their exact composition, and it's his capital city, and he's there. How would the bracer even guess? It's not a basic fact about the world that one would naturally expect to find X number of veiled Archons in Spacerock.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 13

Postby Paracelsus » Mon Dec 28, 2009 5:54 pm

Charlie likes a few things. Mostly, money, and secrets. And he wants Parson and his abilities.
So from that point of view, what would Charlescomm units allied with Faq, but not with the RCC2, be doing in a battlespace between GK and RCC2 forces?

I'm trying to think of how Charlie is gonna get paid out of this, and I don't mean in shmuckles. Merely ingratiating himself with the royals seems far too pedestrian, given his nature. Add that to Wanda, who is clearly playing her own plan (and I'm wondering if she *does* give a care about imploding Jetstone just like Unaroyal at this point), and the situation is chaotic. My bet regardless is that the Ansom/Jillian reunion is gonna go pretty poorly. Also, a question I haven't been able to find the answer to.

Can a side survive without a capital but with its king in another castle? Because it seems like the entire kingdom of Faq fell with its ruler at the same time. Stanley's old king died in a goblin insurrection that captured the capital in the same time. To my knowledge they've never shown what happens if a ruler is not present when their capital city falls. Or maybe the rulers presence makes a city a capital?
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Re: Book 2 – Page 13

Postby Sinrus » Mon Dec 28, 2009 6:21 pm

Paracelsus wrote:I'm trying to think of how Charlie is gonna get paid out of this, and I don't mean in shmuckles. Merely ingratiating himself with the royals seems far too pedestrian, given his nature.


Charlie has everything on the line here. I think everybody agrees that with Jetstone gone, GK will be unstoppable. And if they succeed in crating a single 'world side' then Charlie won't have any clients. And as you said, one of the two things Charlie likes is money.

Paracelsus wrote:Can a side survive without a capital but with its king in another castle? Because it seems like the entire kingdom of Faq fell with its ruler at the same time. Stanley's old king died in a goblin insurrection that captured the capital in the same time. To my knowledge they've never shown what happens if a ruler is not present when their capital city falls. Or maybe the rulers presence makes a city a capital?


Without a capital, the entire side goes barbarian. When the Gobwin revolted, captured GK, and killed Saline, Stanley became Overlord. This saved his forces from being disbanded and I'm pretty certain that they became barbarians until they recaptured the city. The ruler's presence alone doesn't make it the capital; a capital must be situated on a capital site.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 13

Postby Chit Rule Railroad » Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:09 pm

Paracelsus wrote:Can a side survive without a capital but with its king in another castle? Because it seems like the entire kingdom of Faq fell with its ruler at the same time. Stanley's old king died in a goblin insurrection that captured the capital in the same time. To my knowledge they've never shown what happens if a ruler is not present when their capital city falls. Or maybe the rulers presence makes a city a capital?


After the battle at the pass, Vinny made the following argument to try to calm Jillian down: "Just let Prince Ansom take the capital. We'll see how long Stanley can pay that Foolamancer's upkeep when he's a Barbarian, okay?"
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Re: Book 2 – Page 13

Postby Dancing Cthulhu » Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:26 pm

Paracelsus wrote:Can a side survive without a capital but with its king in another castle? Because it seems like the entire kingdom of Faq fell with its ruler at the same time. Stanley's old king died in a goblin insurrection that captured the capital in the same time. To my knowledge they've never shown what happens if a ruler is not present when their capital city falls. Or maybe the rulers presence makes a city a capital?


Although in Faq's case it consisted of its capital city and a couple of low level ones. I also imagined Stanley probably sacked all three of them, because if he didn't there probably still should have been some frozen units in low level ones Jillian could have recovered when she refounded her side.

Sinrus wrote:Without a capital, the entire side goes barbarian. When the Gobwin revolted, captured GK, and killed Saline, Stanley became Overlord. This saved his forces from being disbanded and I'm pretty certain that they became barbarians until they recaptured the city. The ruler's presence alone doesn't make it the capital; a capital must be situated on a capital site.


Although it is interesting (since we haven't gotten any real in comic examples yet) the exact mechanics of what happens if a side has more then one capital site. Take current GK. There is still the capital, but they also posses the site that was Unaroyal's former capital. If something happened to the city of GK but Stanley was in the former Unaroyal capital at the time, what effect would it have on his side?

It doesn't matter with Jetstone, since Slately is there, although they also have a number of other cities, and as such a powerful side it might include the capital site of a side they conqured.
And so my time with the Tardy Elves draws to a close, and I am let to ponder how the experience will... eh, I'll finish later. No need to rush.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 13

Postby Sinrus » Mon Dec 28, 2009 11:08 pm

I assume that sides can only have one capital at a time, but there are a few contradicting RL examples (Brazil was it? Or Venezuela? Some South American country has two capitals.), but maybe if GK gets captured Unaroyal will become the new capital.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 13

Postby Krennson » Mon Dec 28, 2009 11:14 pm

splintermute wrote:Another way of looking at the bracer's supposed "predictamancy" power is to look at the specific question Charlie asked: "Tell me the odds that learning what happened to my Archons right now will be worth giving up those calculations in the future."

He then gave two possible reasons for the answer: "That either means that I could likely find out the information through other means, or the calculations will be highly valuable."

Perhaps the only calculation the bracer did was "What is the likelihood that Charlie will need the future calculations before he independently discovers the secret of decryption." The only factors the bracer would need to consider are how soon the secret of decryption would be made public (probably very soon, given GK's expansion rate, especially if it was something Charlie was actively investigating) vs. how soon Charlie was likely to enter a complex battle scenario that required further calculations (fairly unlikely - the only battles where Charlie had previously needed calculations were ones in which he'd stood in opposition to Parson, but this time the RCC II seemed to be pretty unlikely to hire him).


maybe it's an economics calculation?

The standard economic costs of a general scout sweep in and around gobwin knob territory, versus the standard value of having a mathamancer available for a few days?
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Re: Book 2 – Page 13

Postby Menas » Tue Dec 29, 2009 1:30 pm

Paracelsus wrote:Charlie likes a few things. Mostly, money, and secrets. And he wants Parson and his abilities.
So from that point of view, what would Charlescomm units allied with Faq, but not with the RCC2, be doing in a battlespace between GK and RCC2 forces?


When Charlie initially talked to Jillian he was freaking out because of the breach of security that had occurred due to the decryption of his units. His secrets are closely guarded, and he wants to keep them that way. It's going to be very hard to keep knowledge of his operations secret while Wanda has the ability to decrypt his Archons. This is one reason he wants to see Wanda dead ASAP.

Also, he's one of the few people smart enough to realize that if GK isn't stopped soon, there will be no stopping them. In the latest update, Sammy Hagar is just NOW starting to realize that turning on Jetstone might not be a good idea. And the only reason for that was because he didn't like the idea of being decrypted himself, not because he realized (or cared that) GK is going to take over the world. If they keep winning, they're going to be able to increase their own forces with the numbers of the defeated forces (and any of their own forces that weren't decrypted to begin with) every time they win a battle. The only way to beat them is to completely wipe out their army, or kill Wanda. This is another reason he wants to see Wanda dead ASAP.

In addition, Charlie was talking earlier about how the world would be convinced that GK doesn't have the Titans on their side if a wielder of one of the Arkentools was croaked. This is yet another reason he'd like to see Wanda dead ASAP.

Lastly, Charlie probably assumes that Parson has interrogated the Archons and now has knowledge of his operations. This means Charlie wants Parson dead or captured.

In summary:

- Charlie wants Wanda dead. He can achieve this in the coming battle. I'm expecting he'll make her the highest priority target during the fight.
- Charlie wants Parson dead or captured. He can only achieve this by conquering GK. If he's successful in killing Wanda he'll be coming after Parson.

Sidenote: When Charlie talked to Jillian initially, he said none of the other royals would talk to him because they thought he was working with GK (because he'd been talking to Parson and has an Arkentool). So it's not like he didn't want to join the RCC2 or fight with them. They just wouldn't work with him - with the exception of Jillian. Also, remember that Jillian is a member of the RCC2. So even though Charlie doesn't value RCC2 units as much as Jillian's, he is very much interested in working with RCC2. And Charlie's units aren't just between GK and RCC2 units, they're also between GK units and Jillian's units.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 13

Postby Ninjaguineapig » Tue Dec 29, 2009 3:40 pm

Charlie does not want Parson dead. Charlie wants Parson working for him. If he manages to arrange Wanda's croaking in the upcoming battle, GK will be helpless before RCCII's retaliation. They'll charge down at GK, and without Wanda, Jack, his warlords and the dwagons, Parson won't have a chance. He won't even be able to uncroak the volcano again. Charlie will have Parson right where he want's him. Assuming, of course, that Jetstone and Haggar beat GK.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 13

Postby theseus2x » Tue Dec 29, 2009 4:47 pm

Sinrus wrote:The Bracer doesn't "know" anything, it's a machine. In this page we see Parson typing information into the bracer. Furthermore, the fact that the percentage of success changed when Ossomer's info became available means that the bracer itself doesn't know what the composition of any forces are.


My point is the bracer couldn't possibly have had the information needed to make that calculation. Nor could Parson. Nor could Charlie. Yet it came up with a number that actually (in retrospect) seemed viable. Charlie and Parson were both impressed.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 13

Postby Menas » Tue Dec 29, 2009 5:16 pm

theseus2x wrote:...Having said all that : Do we know Slately can't promote a new heir when its not his turn?


I haven't seen any examples indicating this wouldn't be possible. Which would explain why Parson is advising Wanda to take out the tower and Slately prior to the next turn.

Poor Parson is under the impression that Wanda is going to be able to ignore Jillian's 'small' air force and go after the tower....
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Re: Book 2 – Page 13

Postby Menas » Tue Dec 29, 2009 5:23 pm

Ninjaguineapig wrote:Charlie does not want Parson dead. Charlie wants Parson working for him. If he manages to arrange Wanda's croaking in the upcoming battle, GK will be helpless before RCCII's retaliation. They'll charge down at GK, and without Wanda, Jack, his warlords and the dwagons, Parson won't have a chance. He won't even be able to uncroak the volcano again. Charlie will have Parson right where he want's him. Assuming, of course, that Jetstone and Haggar beat GK.


I said dead or captured, perhaps I should have said 'captured or dead'. I agree that Charlie would prefer capturing to croaking. But if capturing wasn't a strong possibility, I'm sure croaking would be on the table.

Charlie is set on protecting his information. Wanda is the more important target - if she ends up being out of the picture, then Parson will remain the sole threat to his security. I'm expecting Charlie will want to remove that threat, one way or the other.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 13

Postby DoctorJest » Tue Dec 29, 2009 6:23 pm

Sinrus wrote:I assume that sides can only have one capital at a time, but there are a few contradicting RL examples (Brazil was it? Or Venezuela? Some South American country has two capitals.), but maybe if GK gets captured Unaroyal will become the new capital.


I don't know why people keep bringing up RL examples when trying to figure out Erfworld, when we know Erfworld isn't based in the slightest on RL. It's based on Turn Based Strategy games, and any speculation on how it "works" should be looking at those games for examples, not at RL. In some games, for example, if your capitol is destroyed, you must build a new capitol before you can purchase new troops or govern cities. Assuming you HAVE other cities, you could promote one of them to a Capitol.

In Book 1, if GK was captured, Stanley would have gone barbarian because he has no other cities to promote to capitol. However, it's possible that if a side with multiple cities loses the capitol, they may be able to promote another city to capitol. If they cannot do so, then the entire side would go barbarian.

This is why they were trying to stop Stanley from reaching Faq in book 1. If he could capture the city, when GK fell he could promote Faq to capitol and then start a new side right off.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 13

Postby DoctorJest » Tue Dec 29, 2009 6:28 pm

Menas wrote:
Paracelsus wrote:Charlie likes a few things. Mostly, money, and secrets. And he wants Parson and his abilities.
So from that point of view, what would Charlescomm units allied with Faq, but not with the RCC2, be doing in a battlespace between GK and RCC2 forces?


When Charlie initially talked to Jillian he was freaking out because of the breach of security that had occurred due to the decryption of his units. His secrets are closely guarded, and he wants to keep them that way. It's going to be very hard to keep knowledge of his operations secret while Wanda has the ability to decrypt his Archons. This is one reason he wants to see Wanda dead ASAP.


We already know that the Archons don't know all that much about Charlie himself. Nothing they revealed seemed terribly damning. We also know that "full service" from Charlescomm allows a side to use Archons against other Charlescomm units. There is no way that could be possible if Archons were unable to discuss Charlescomm operations with their clients. This might be why he does, in fact, keep so much information from his own Archons (including none of them ever even having seen him), so that there is no way that they could ever reveal anything he doesn't want them to.
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