Digdoug - Episode 10

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Re: Digdoug - Episode 10

Postby Lamech » Mon Mar 17, 2014 4:08 pm

0beron wrote:
Godzfirefly wrote:
I thought we saw in a previous updated that libraries pop with books that record the histories of sides. If Charlie understands this, then perhaps he's not 100% sure he won't be ratted out by a record of his treachery. Likewise, casters seem to survive the fall of their side fairly often.

That same update pointed out that histories aren't published until after the side falls.
He means that if Charlie helps destroy a side by betrayal, it may show in THAT side's record.

Or if the side falls at any point in the future. And if the side doesn't fall they can tell people about it. There is no real way to avoid treachery being revealed. You would need to:
1) Kill or brainwash the current ruler.
2) Do so before he can get a thought out ordering his/her units to reveal the betrayal.
3) Ensure the side never ever falls, or a book will be published revealing the betrayal. (Which makes killing problematic.)
4) Kill all witnesses to such an act.

Essentially, Charlie's only real options for betrayal without being noticed would be assassinating a ruler, such that someone else can be reasonably blamed, or brainwashing ruler to use as a puppet kingdom. And since this would permanently destroy Charlie's ability to do business, if such an act was unveiled its an endgame move. I don't think he would do it if he is still planning on his mercenary shtick.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 10

Postby Vreejack » Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:21 pm

I am still concerned that the original aerial attack--the one that was Predicted--is still being prepared. Nullifying a Predicted attack is a two-stage process. You must not only satisfy the conditions of the Prediction--hiring Charlie to stage an attack may do that---but you must also prevent that attack that was originally planned. So far we have not seen any attempt to address the second part.

They may have been better off simply reinforcing and preparing their city in secret in order to win the battle by surprise. Mind you, they still may.
So...Watashi wa mizugorō ga sukina koto o kiita, neh?
A Prediction is what would have happened had there been no Prediction. What is scary is that they are also what will happen in spite of the Prediction.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 10

Postby Vreejack » Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:30 pm

Lamech wrote:Essentially, Charlie's only real options for betrayal without being noticed would be assassinating a ruler, such that someone else can be reasonably blamed, or brainwashing ruler to use as a puppet kingdom. And since this would permanently destroy Charlie's ability to do business, if such an act was unveiled its an endgame move. I don't think he would do it if he is still planning on his mercenary shtick.


We have seen how difficult it is to suppress news in Erf. We have seen the lengths Charlie went to in order to keep his secrets. It's not going to happen here.

I am curious about one thing, though. We still do not know who it was who was going to attack Homekey. None of their enemies have air assets. What if the enemy was about to hire Charlie to attack Homekey, and the predictomancer glimpsed that. It is actually the most likely way for an aerial attack to occur. If so, then did Homekey hire Charlie first? Or second? The rest of this story may well hinge on how Charlie handles this conflict.
So...Watashi wa mizugorō ga sukina koto o kiita, neh?
A Prediction is what would have happened had there been no Prediction. What is scary is that they are also what will happen in spite of the Prediction.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 10

Postby Godzfirefly » Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:36 pm

Vreejack wrote:I am still concerned that the original aerial attack--the one that was Predicted--is still being prepared. Nullifying a Predicted attack is a two-stage process. You must not only satisfy the conditions of the Prediction--hiring Charlie to stage an attack may do that---but you must also prevent that attack that was originally planned. So far we have not seen any attempt to address the second part.


You assume that the Prediction was caused by someone out there planning a specific attack that the Predictamancer saw in the same way that prophecy might work in other settings. With Erfworld Predictamancy, that is not necessarily the case. It is just as likely that Fate has a random encounter chart or script outline that says certain events must happen to this side, and the Predictamancer saw that an air attack is coming up soon. In that case, any air attack would satisfy the Prediction, so because Fate's script doesn't call for two air attacks on Homekey (either because of story symmetry, game balance, poor planning, or some other more outlandish reason), the fake attack DOES prevent any other attacks.

Right now, there is no actual evidence that future events cause the Predictions to be what they are. After all, if Predictions were as simple as seeing cause and effect (like a Lookamancer with a Mathamancy artifact might), then the chances of a Prediction happening could be altered by characters responding to the Prediction. Instead, all Predictions seem to happen regardless of response. Only the unPredicted circumstances seem alterable.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 10

Postby Lilwik » Mon Mar 17, 2014 6:11 pm

Godzfirefly wrote:It is just as likely that Fate has a random encounter chart or script outline that says certain events must happen to this side, and the Predictamancer saw that an air attack is coming up soon. In that case, any air attack would satisfy the Prediction, so because Fate's script doesn't call for two air attacks on Homekey (either because of story symmetry, game balance, poor planning, or some other more outlandish reason), the fake attack DOES prevent any other attacks.
But what about the side that would have attacked if the fake attack didn't happen? Unless they are Delkey, there's a very good chance that they won't even notice Charlie's attack on Homekey, and if so what could possibly stop them from actually attacking?

Some form of the script outline theory might be possible, but until we have some actual evidence suggesting it we should probably stick with the simpler theory that Predictamancy is merely predicting, just for the sake of avoiding epileptic trees.

Godzfirefly wrote:Right now, there is no actual evidence that future events cause the Predictions to be what they are.
I agree, but it's the simplest explanation. I'm going to want more evidence to come in before I go to a more elaborate theory of Predictamancy.

Godzfirefly wrote:After all, if Predictions were as simple as seeing cause and effect (like a Lookamancer with a Mathamancy artifact might), then the chances of a Prediction happening could be altered by characters responding to the Prediction.
Not if the chances were 100% at the time the Prediction was made. Haffaton was big and powerful and on course to becoming huge, while Goodminton was weak and failing. Delphie wanted a way to make a deal with Haffaton for Goodminton's survival, so she was inevitably going to offer Wanda to Haffaton, and Haffaton was inevitably going to want Wanda, since Wanda has the potential to create the zero-upkeep decrypted, which Haffaton's Predictamancer could probably see. Taken all together, I'd say that Wanda being captured by Haffaton and serving Olive had 100% chances.

The same thing goes with Jillian croaking the ruler of Haffaton. Jillian wanted to croak the ruler of Haffaton, and Jillian is a very capable warlord. The only one who ever really worked against that Prediction coming true was Olive, but by that time it was already too late. Since there were no characters with both the power and desire to prevent the Prediction, I can easily believe the chances were 100%.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 10

Postby Godzfirefly » Mon Mar 17, 2014 6:28 pm

Lilwik wrote:But what about the side that would have attacked if the fake attack didn't happen? Unless they are Delkey, there's a very good chance that they won't even notice Charlie's attack on Homekey, and if so what could possibly stop them from actually attacking?


I would suggest that there doesn't need to be a side currently planning to attack Homekey any more than Erfworlders need to be children before they need to be adults.

Some form of the script outline theory might be possible, but until we have some actual evidence suggesting it we should probably stick with the simpler theory that Predictamancy is merely predicting, just for the sake of avoiding epileptic trees.

Lilwik wrote:I agree, but it's the simplest explanation. I'm going to want more evidence to come in before I go to a more elaborate theory of Predictamancy.


I would disagree. Erfworld has actively had effects with no demonstrable cause before.

Lilwik wrote:
Godzfirefly wrote:After all, if Predictions were as simple as seeing cause and effect (like a Lookamancer with a Mathamancy artifact might), then the chances of a Prediction happening could be altered by characters responding to the Prediction.
Not if the chances were 100% at the time the Prediction was made. Haffaton was big and powerful and on course to becoming huge, while Goodminton was weak and failing. Delphie wanted a way to make a deal with Haffaton for Goodminton's survival, so she was inevitably going to offer Wanda to Haffaton, and Haffaton was inevitably going to want Wanda, since Wanda has the potential to create the zero-upkeep decrypted, which Haffaton's Predictamancer could probably see. Taken all together, I'd say that Wanda being captured by Haffaton and serving Olive had 100% chances.

The same thing goes with Jillian croaking the ruler of Haffaton. Jillian wanted to croak the ruler of Haffaton, and Jillian is a very capable warlord. The only one who ever really worked against that Prediction coming true was Olive, but by that time it was already too late. Since there were no characters with both the power and desire to prevent the Prediction, I can easily believe the chances were 100%.


And what of Jillian being ambushed? Marie clearly stated that, even though there was no ambush waiting along Jillian's original route, she would have been ambushed regardless of which route she was taking? And, that episode suggests that it happened more than once.

And, how about Wanda becoming attuned to an Arkentool? Certainly the events that resulted in that Event were not a 100% Mathamancy certainty.

Or the Predictions thrown around in the Magic Kingdom regarding what was about to happen?

Or that one warlord (her name escapes me) that was Predicted to die in a fire? Especially given how likely it was for her to die with an arrow to the head earlier that turn, except that Fate seemed to intervene to prevent the arrow strike.

I find it hard to believe that Predictamancers can only Predict things which cannot be prevented regardless of the random chance rolls or the actions of others. It certainly doesn't seem that way, based on evidence.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 10

Postby Lilwik » Mon Mar 17, 2014 7:14 pm

Godzfirefly wrote:I would suggest that there doesn't need to be a side currently planning to attack Homekey any more than Erfworlders need to be children before they need to be adults.
You mean that Fate really would just pop a side out of nothing, the way it pops people out of nothing?

Godzfirefly wrote:And what of Jillian being ambushed? Marie clearly stated that, even though there was no ambush waiting along Jillian's original route, she would have been ambushed regardless of which route she was taking? And, that episode suggests that it happened more than once.
That's B0E49. We don't know there was no ambush waiting along Jillian's original route. All that an ambush requires is an enemy in a hex that Jillian was going to go through. If the enemy is unled and not a scout, it would attack Jillian automatically, and since Jillian is often going through unallied territory, I would expect that ambushes are going to happen frequently. It doesn't surprise me that she could plan one route that leads to an ambush, then change her course and end up on another route that also leads to an ambush. Jillian says that she sometimes took the trouble of checking her original route for ambushes, but she couldn't possibly have checked it completely because she had to have used up some of her move while flying into the first ambush.

Godzfirefly wrote:And, how about Wanda becoming attuned to an Arkentool? Certainly the events that resulted in that Event were not a 100% Mathamancy certainty.
They could be. Only two things are required to guarantee that: Wanda needed to survive to the end of the battle for Gobwin Knob, and Gobwin Knob needed to win. Wanda's survival could be 100% since she is a caster and not a front-line soldier, plus she's a very high-level Croakamancer and that makes her very hard to kill. Maybe Ansom could have killed Wanda that one time in B1P122, but the weapon that Ansom was holding was the Arkenpliers, and who knows what would have happened if he'd actually tried to attack her. As for the odds of winning the battle, Parson's final tactic was always a guaranteed win no matter what else happened.

Godzfirefly wrote:Or the Predictions thrown around in the Magic Kingdom regarding what was about to happen?
Do you mean the Prediction that Parson was going to get through the portal? In the end everyone decided to let him go through; there wasn't even a battle. Parson getting through was always just a matter of time.

Godzfirefly wrote:Or that one warlord (her name escapes me) that was Predicted to die in a fire? Especially given how likely it was for her to die with an arrow to the head earlier that turn, except that Fate seemed to intervene to prevent the arrow strike.
You must be talking about Sylvia. That wasn't a proper Prediction. Carnymancy was at work with her, as of B2P86, and I certainly agree that Carnymancy is probably the sort of magic that makes stuff happen. I'm pretty sure it was Carnymancy that prevented that arrow from hitting her.

Godzfirefly wrote:I find it hard to believe that Predictamancers can only Predict things which cannot be prevented regardless of the random chance rolls or the actions of others. It certainly doesn't seem that way, based on evidence.
If Predictamancy is able to magically see the future, then it should be beyond our merely mundane ability to anticipate future events. We should expect that it would predict things that we doubt it could know with certainty. Some things that seem random would probably be not actually random when seen through the eyes of a Predictamancer, because a Predictamancer is so much better at seeing the patterns. That's an amazing magical ability, but all magical abilities are amazing. We shouldn't invent a supernatural infrastructure just to make Predictamancy less amazing, because we'd probably be inventing something different from what Rob Balder would invent.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 10

Postby Godzfirefly » Mon Mar 17, 2014 7:45 pm

Lilwik wrote:
Godzfirefly wrote:I would suggest that there doesn't need to be a side currently planning to attack Homekey any more than Erfworlders need to be children before they need to be adults.
You mean that Fate really would just pop a side out of nothing, the way it pops people out of nothing?


Not exactly. I'd expect Fate to take a side that isn't currently planning to attack Homekey and make it want to attack Homekey without prior cause.

Godzfirefly wrote:And what of Jillian being ambushed? Marie clearly stated that, even though there was no ambush waiting along Jillian's original route, she would have been ambushed regardless of which route she was taking? And, that episode suggests that it happened more than once.
That's B0E49. We don't know there was no ambush waiting along Jillian's original route. All that an ambush requires is an enemy in a hex that Jillian was going to go through. If the enemy is unled and not a scout, it would attack Jillian automatically, and since Jillian is often going through unallied territory, I would expect that ambushes are going to happen frequently. It doesn't surprise me that she could plan one route that leads to an ambush, then change her course and end up on another route that also leads to an ambush. Jillian says that she sometimes took the trouble of checking her original route for ambushes, but she couldn't possibly have checked it completely because she had to have used up some of her move while flying into the first ambush.


1) Two units randomly wandering across eachother and stumbling into battle is not an ambush.
2) Once is chance, twice is a coincidence, multiple times is a pattern.
3) Not all of her unit moves at the same rate. She might easily have used the faster units to scout the entire alternate route that the slower units would have kept her to. Whether she could find an ambush is arguable, but I'd imagine that such an ambush would be at least as likely to strike the smaller, faster unit as strike the larger, slower one.

Lilwik wrote:
Godzfirefly wrote:And, how about Wanda becoming attuned to an Arkentool? Certainly the events that resulted in that Event were not a 100% Mathamancy certainty.
They could be. Only two things are required to guarantee that: Wanda needed to survive to the end of the battle for Gobwin Knob, and Gobwin Knob needed to win. Wanda's survival could be 100% since she is a caster and not a front-line soldier, plus she's a very high-level Croakamancer and that makes her very hard to kill. Maybe Ansom could have killed Wanda that one time in B1P122, but the weapon that Ansom was holding was the Arkenpliers, and who knows what would have happened if he'd actually tried to attack her. As for the odds of winning the battle, Parson's final tactic was always a guaranteed win no matter what else happened.


Also, it required Wanda to be a part of Gobwin Knob...which required her to first defect to FAQ, then defect to Gobwin Knob...and survive everything in the process there...and don't forget all the battles she participated in while Gobwin Knob was growing and then shrinking. Also, it required Ansom to get the Arkenpliers, bring them to Gobwin Knob, etc. And, it required everything that is Parson Gotti and his unpredictable methods...

And, you say Wanda isn't a front line soldier, but she is a caster that often participates in battles, or at least did for both Goodminton and Haffaton.

Lilwik wrote:
Godzfirefly wrote:Or the Predictions thrown around in the Magic Kingdom regarding what was about to happen?
Do you mean the Prediction that Parson was going to get through the portal? In the end everyone decided to let him go through, there wasn't even a battle. Parson getting through was always just a matter of time.

Among a wide variety of minor Predictions that were thrown out by the various Predictamancers there, yes.

Lilwik wrote:
Godzfirefly wrote:I find it hard to believe that Predictamancers can only Predict things which cannot be prevented regardless of the random chance rolls or the actions of others. It certainly doesn't seem that way, based on evidence.
If Predictamancy is able to magically see the future, then it should be beyond our merely mundane ability to anticipate future events. We should expect that it would predict things that we doubt it could know with certainty. Some things that seem random would probably be not actually random when seen through the eyes of a Predictamancer, because a Predictamancer is so much better at seeing the patterns. That's an amazing magical ability, but all magical abilities are amazing. We shouldn't invent a supernatural infrastructure just to make Predictamancy less amazing, because we'd probably be inventing something different from what Rob Balder would invent.
That sounds like the kind of explanation Delphi would have given her Luckamancer underling. And, as I recall, he'd heavily disagree with the argument that random rolls aren't really random at all. Or that Luch has no part in it, just patterns.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 10

Postby Lilwik » Mon Mar 17, 2014 8:25 pm

Godzfirefly wrote:Two units randomly wandering across eachother and stumbling into battle is not an ambush.
They don't stumble across each other; one is just sitting there because it is Faq's turn, and Jillian stumbles into them, then gets attacked. That seems like an ambush to me.

Godzfirefly wrote:Once is chance, twice is a coincidence, multiple times is a pattern.
Exactly, it's the pattern of flying around in unallied territory and running into unallied units who attack you on sight.

Godzfirefly wrote:Not all of her unit moves at the same rate.
They do if they are all flying on gwiffons, which seems like a major possibility. Not all gwiffons are exactly equal, but they're probably pretty close, and I seriously doubt that Jillian would risk sending a team of her fastest units to wander off into a potential ambush unsupported. In fact, I think that Jillian probably checked the other route on the next turn, after giving whatever enemy was going to ambush her a chance to leave.

Godzfirefly wrote:Also, it required Wanda to be a part of Gobwin Knob...which required her to first defect to FAQ, then defect to Gobwin Knob...
The Prediction was made after Wanda had already defected to Faq. We don't know that defecting to Gobwin Knob is required. There could have been multiple paths that would have lead Wanda to attune to an Arkentool. If Wanda hadn't defected to Gobwin Knob, then I seriously doubt that Gobwin Knob would have survived, and after Jetstone's victory maybe they would eventually have found Faq and that would have brought the pliers to Wanda. Or someone else would find Faq and capture Wanda, eventually leading Wanda and the pliers together. All it takes is Wanda surviving long enough to encounter the pliers someday. Even if the actual encounter were pure luck, it's guaranteed to happen given enough time.

Godzfirefly wrote:Also, it required Ansom to get the Arkenpliers, bring them to Gobwin Knob, etc.
Jetstone has had the pliers for a long time. They have a tradition of having every prince touch them in the hope of attuning. I'm pretty sure that Ansom took them everywhere, and I guess he was doing that even before the Prediction was made.

Godzfirefly wrote:And, it required everything that is Parson Gotti and his unpredictable methods...
It was Predictamancers who arranged for Parson to be summoned. His exact methods might be unpredictable, but his victory certainly wasn't unpredictable. The Predictamancers surely knew he was going to win.

Godzfirefly wrote:And, you say Wanda isn't a front line soldier, but she is a caster that often participates in battles, or at least did for both Goodminton and Haffaton.
But by the time the Prediction was made, Wanda was an old and experienced Croakamancer. A novice Croakamancer could easily get herself croaked in a battle, but I expect by that point Wanda was too good for her survival to be merely a matter of luck.

Godzfirefly wrote:That sounds like the kind of explanation Delphi would have given her Luckamancer underling. And, as I recall, he'd heavily disagree with the argument that random rolls aren't really random at all. Or that Luck has no part in it, just patterns.
I'm not saying that luck doesn't exist. I'm just saying that some things are luck and some things probably aren't luck. Predictamancers can't Predict everything, and that leaves plenty of room for freewill and luck. I'm just saying that when a Predictamancer does Predict something it's probably because events have lined up to make a certain outcome inevitable. I say that because I know that sometimes events do line up to make certain outcomes inevitable, like when you are surrounded by an enemy army on all six sides. So we have the choice to either believe that Predictamancy is just another example of something we already know on a larger scale, or to invent an invisible Fate monster who is controlling people's lives.

I'm not saying the Fate monster can't exist. I'm just saying that we should be skeptical of it until it shows itself.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 10

Postby (name here) » Tue Mar 18, 2014 2:04 am

Vreejack wrote:
Lamech wrote:Essentially, Charlie's only real options for betrayal without being noticed would be assassinating a ruler, such that someone else can be reasonably blamed, or brainwashing ruler to use as a puppet kingdom. And since this would permanently destroy Charlie's ability to do business, if such an act was unveiled its an endgame move. I don't think he would do it if he is still planning on his mercenary shtick.


We have seen how difficult it is to suppress news in Erf. We have seen the lengths Charlie went to in order to keep his secrets. It's not going to happen here.

I am curious about one thing, though. We still do not know who it was who was going to attack Homekey. None of their enemies have air assets. What if the enemy was about to hire Charlie to attack Homekey, and the predictomancer glimpsed that. It is actually the most likely way for an aerial attack to occur. If so, then did Homekey hire Charlie first? Or second? The rest of this story may well hinge on how Charlie handles this conflict.


From his actions in the battle for Gobwin Knob, I feel pretty confident in stating that Charlie will fulfill his contract with Homekey and does not have any contract that conflicts with it. However, for the right price he might do something that doesn't violate the contract but does violate an informal understanding like how he spiked his prices when the RCC ended their contract with the understanding that he'd get hired back to join the force intercepting Stanley. Even that, though, probably comes at a very high price. He can't afford to overdo it because no one will pay for the services of a mercenary force that won't do what they want.

Still, I expect Posbrake is going to find himself paying out a lot more than he was originally planning. On the other hand, he seems pretty bright, so it's also possible he is working to be the reason why someone else ends up needing to pay a lot more than expected.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 10

Postby WarFAN » Tue Mar 18, 2014 9:49 am

Lamech wrote: I thought we saw in a previous updated that libraries pop with books that record the histories of sides. If Charlie understands this, then perhaps he's not 100% sure he won't be ratted out by a record of his treachery. Likewise, casters seem to survive the fall of their side fairly often.
3) Ensure the side never ever falls, or a book will be published revealing the betrayal. (Which makes killing problematic.)
.


Wait a minute... There is a book out there revealing the end of Saline IV?
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 10

Postby Godzfirefly » Tue Mar 18, 2014 10:21 am

WarFAN wrote:
Lamech wrote: I thought we saw in a previous updated that libraries pop with books that record the histories of sides. If Charlie understands this, then perhaps he's not 100% sure he won't be ratted out by a record of his treachery. Likewise, casters seem to survive the fall of their side fairly often.
3) Ensure the side never ever falls, or a book will be published revealing the betrayal. (Which makes killing problematic.)
.


Wait a minute... There is a book out there revealing the end of Saline IV?


Probably not, since the Side still exists.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 10

Postby 0beron » Tue Mar 18, 2014 2:47 pm

Gobwin Knob did fall/end when Saline IV croaked, Stanley just refounded it the same way Jillian did. We even have proof that this type of fall still triggers a Publishing, because FAQ had books in Lord Crush's Library.
However, this would not reveal Charlie's betrayal (if he was indeed involved) because it was the Gobwins who did the deed. Side Histories seem to show combat action, it probably wouldn't show Charlie meddling with the Allies.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 10

Postby Godzfirefly » Tue Mar 18, 2014 3:02 pm

0beron wrote:Gobwin Knob did fall/end when Saline IV croaked, Stanley just refounded it the same way Jillian did. We even have proof that this type of fall still triggers a Publishing, because FAQ had books in Lord Crush's Library.


I didn't remember it saying Gobwin Knob fell...Would you mind letting me know where you got that reference? I'd love to reread whatever history of Gobwin Knob we have!
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 10

Postby 0beron » Tue Mar 18, 2014 3:19 pm

It's in early Book 1, don't recall the exact page. Sizemore explains the history of how Stanley got to be King. Plus it simply makes sense following the rules we currently know about sides. Side lost both it's Ruler and Capital (because the Gobwins would have needed to croak every native GK unit in the city). When you lose both of those things, the remaining cities go nuetral like they did with Haffaton. The Side mechanically ends.
Because Stanley had a big powerful force with him, he returned (presumably) that same turn or the very next day and recreated the side, hence Sizemore saying something along the lines of "the side was not lost".
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 10

Postby Vreejack » Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:22 pm

Godzfirefly wrote:
Vreejack wrote:I am still concerned that the original aerial attack--the one that was Predicted--is still being prepared. Nullifying a Predicted attack is a two-stage process. You must not only satisfy the conditions of the Prediction--hiring Charlie to stage an attack may do that---but you must also prevent that attack that was originally planned. So far we have not seen any attempt to address the second part.


You assume that the Prediction was caused by someone out there planning a specific attack that the Predictamancer saw in the same way that prophecy might work in other settings. With Erfworld Predictamancy, that is not necessarily the case. It is just as likely that Fate has a random encounter chart or script outline that says certain events must happen to this side, and the Predictamancer saw that an air attack is coming up soon. In that case, any air attack would satisfy the Prediction, so because Fate's script doesn't call for two air attacks on Homekey (either because of story symmetry, game balance, poor planning, or some other more outlandish reason), the fake attack DOES prevent any other attacks.

Right now, there is no actual evidence that future events cause the Predictions to be what they are. After all, if Predictions were as simple as seeing cause and effect (like a Lookamancer with a Mathamancy artifact might), then the chances of a Prediction happening could be altered by characters responding to the Prediction. Instead, all Predictions seem to happen regardless of response. Only the unPredicted circumstances seem alterable.


But if predictamany involves a "roll on a random encounter chart" then what good is it? Who would ever want to use it? Why would the king of Faq not immediately disband his predictamancer for fear that she would be "rolling on random encounter charts" every day?

It seems to me that if predictamancy is to have any value at all then it must only Predict what would have happened anyway. What makes them different and powerful and weird is that they are uttered in such a way (loopholes and such) that the literal meaning of a Prediction can never be affected by the people who know about them.
So...Watashi wa mizugorō ga sukina koto o kiita, neh?
A Prediction is what would have happened had there been no Prediction. What is scary is that they are also what will happen in spite of the Prediction.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 10

Postby Godzfirefly » Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:28 pm

Vreejack wrote:But if predictamany involves a "roll on a random encounter chart" then what good is it? Who would ever want to use it? Why would the king of Faq not immediately disband his predictamancer for fear that she would be "rolling on random encounter charts" every day?


I think you misunderstood that analogy. My suggestion was unscripted (or unFated) events might have a mathamancy-style probability of occurring in a given instance. Like, if you're popping a warlord who has no particular Fate, there is a % chance it will instead be an unFated caster. A Predictamancer can see the result of the probability chance before it occurs, it doesn't cause a roll to happen.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 10

Postby Lilwik » Tue Mar 18, 2014 5:41 pm

0beron wrote:It's in early Book 1, don't recall the exact page. Sizemore explains the history of how Stanley got to be King. Plus it simply makes sense following the rules we currently know about sides. Side lost both it's Ruler and Capital (because the Gobwins would have needed to croak every native GK unit in the city). When you lose both of those things, the remaining cities go neutral like they did with Haffaton. The Side mechanically ends.
Because Stanley had a big powerful force with him, he returned (presumably) that same turn or the very next day and recreated the side, hence Sizemore saying something along the lines of "the side was not lost".
The page you are thinking of is B1P79. Your description of it is largely accurate, except that awkwardly Sizemore exactly says, "He promoted Stanley to Heir Designate, at great expense. That way when the capital fell it wasn't the end of our side." It's a bit hard to support a theory that says that the side ended and was recreated by Stanley when we have Sizemore saying things like that. What happened to Gobwin Knob was not like what happened to Haffaton; it was like what happened to Goodminton and Faq, loss of the capital with a surviving heir becoming the new ruler.

You're right that we know that what happened to Faq triggers a publishing, therefore Gobwin Knob was surely published because of what happened to Saline IV. We also know that Stanley became a barbarian and all field units outside of his stack disbanded. It's lucky that he was stacked with the casters. As far as I can tell, we don't know that the remaining cities went neutral. We know that would happen if Stanley died, but just losing the capital might not be enough. It would seem a bit unfair. We know that barbarians can capture cities, so why shouldn't Gobwin Knob cities just become barbarian Gobwin Knob cities? If they became neutral then surely Stanley would have had to recapture them all. On the other hand, it seems unfair that field units disband because of the loss of the capital, so fairness may not be a good guide to what is real.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 10

Postby Keighvin1 » Tue Mar 18, 2014 5:56 pm

I'm glad this library thing came up so I didn't have to necro a post.

While I have no way of knowing if there was a history of Faq in that library or any other one, nothing in the Crush story said that there was one in King Scrofula's library. He mentioned Banhammer's book as being one that was self-published, mentioned that it indicated Faq was a bubble kingdom, and then digressed into speaking about the historical books of bubble sides, saying that each of those, having books in the library, had ended.
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Re: Digdoug - Episode 10

Postby Godzfirefly » Tue Mar 18, 2014 5:59 pm

Lilwik wrote:You're right that we know that what happened to Faq triggers a publishing, therefore Gobwin Knob was surely published because of what happened to Saline IV.

Actually, we don't know if Faq's book was published because of Haffaton's conquering them (which didn't end the side) or because of Stanley conquering Faq (which did end the side.)

Lilwik wrote:We also know that Stanley became a barbarian and all field units outside of his stack disbanded.

We know this...how? Sizemore didn't say that, he just says that they retook the city. My impression was that he still kept the side in existance by being the heir.

Lilwik wrote: On the other hand, it seems unfair that field units disband because of the loss of the capital, so fairness may not be a good guide to what is real.

I don't think it's just the capital loss that does it, I think the ruler has to be captured or croaked to end the side and disband the field units.
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