Godzfirefly wrote:Two units randomly wandering across eachother and stumbling into battle is not an ambush.
They don't stumble across each other; one is just sitting there because it is Faq's turn, and Jillian stumbles into them, then gets attacked. That seems like an ambush to me.
Godzfirefly wrote:Once is chance, twice is a coincidence, multiple times is a pattern.
Exactly, it's the pattern of flying around in unallied territory and running into unallied units who attack you on sight.
Godzfirefly wrote:Not all of her unit moves at the same rate.
They do if they are all flying on gwiffons, which seems like a major possibility. Not all gwiffons are exactly equal, but they're probably pretty close, and I seriously doubt that Jillian would risk sending a team of her fastest units to wander off into a potential ambush unsupported. In fact, I think that Jillian probably checked the other route on the next turn, after giving whatever enemy was going to ambush her a chance to leave.
Godzfirefly wrote:Also, it required Wanda to be a part of Gobwin Knob...which required her to first defect to FAQ, then defect to Gobwin Knob...
The Prediction was made after Wanda had already defected to Faq. We don't know that defecting to Gobwin Knob is required. There could have been multiple paths that would have lead Wanda to attune to an Arkentool. If Wanda hadn't defected to Gobwin Knob, then I seriously doubt that Gobwin Knob would have survived, and after Jetstone's victory maybe they would eventually have found Faq and that would have brought the pliers to Wanda. Or someone else would find Faq and capture Wanda, eventually leading Wanda and the pliers together. All it takes is Wanda surviving long enough to encounter the pliers someday. Even if the actual encounter were pure luck, it's guaranteed to happen given enough time.
Godzfirefly wrote:Also, it required Ansom to get the Arkenpliers, bring them to Gobwin Knob, etc.
Jetstone has had the pliers for a long time. They have a tradition of having every prince touch them in the hope of attuning. I'm pretty sure that Ansom took them everywhere, and I guess he was doing that even before the Prediction was made.
Godzfirefly wrote:And, it required everything that is Parson Gotti and his unpredictable methods...
It was Predictamancers who arranged for Parson to be summoned. His exact methods might be unpredictable, but his victory certainly wasn't unpredictable. The Predictamancers surely knew he was going to win.
Godzfirefly wrote:And, you say Wanda isn't a front line soldier, but she is a caster that often participates in battles, or at least did for both Goodminton and Haffaton.
But by the time the Prediction was made, Wanda was an old and experienced Croakamancer. A novice Croakamancer could easily get herself croaked in a battle, but I expect by that point Wanda was too good for her survival to be merely a matter of luck.
Godzfirefly wrote:That sounds like the kind of explanation Delphi would have given her Luckamancer underling. And, as I recall, he'd heavily disagree with the argument that random rolls aren't really random at all. Or that Luck has no part in it, just patterns.
I'm not saying that luck doesn't exist. I'm just saying that some things are luck and some things probably aren't luck. Predictamancers can't Predict everything, and that leaves plenty of room for freewill and luck. I'm just saying that when a Predictamancer does Predict something it's probably because events have lined up to make a certain outcome inevitable. I say that because I know that sometimes events do line up to make certain outcomes inevitable, like when you are surrounded by an enemy army on all six sides. So we have the choice to either believe that Predictamancy is just another example of something we already know on a larger scale, or to invent an invisible Fate monster who is controlling people's lives.
I'm not saying the Fate monster can't exist. I'm just saying that we should be skeptical of it until it shows itself.