No one knows what the bracer means. It's not clear that it has any connection to the falling beam. We could simply be seeing the bracer struggling with the limitations of its Mathamancy. We know Mathamancy has limits from Book 0, Episode 33
Now you're just thrashing around, throwing up anything you can possibly conceive as a counter to my theory. Let me ask you: Have we ever seen the bracer behave this way before? I'll answer for you: No, we have not. So trying to tie the bracer's behavior in providing two completely truthful answers: You've got almost a 100% chance to cast the scroll, and also a 0% chance, is not only grasping at straws, but it is the exact opposite of what happened. The bracer is proving that it is not
limited by the interference of fate, the user just needs to be able to read fast enough (or do what Parson did and run the calc 10 times in a row) to see both answers.
Lilwik wrote:There's only one way that Wanda can kill herself and still will not do it, and that's by making the free choice with no magical force controlling her or dropping beams on her. If Fate is flying around Erfworld pushing beams and doing similar things to keep the plan on track, then Wanda cannot kill herself. Therefore, Fate doesn't do that.
Your conclusion has absolutely nothing to do with the facts you laid out before arriving at it. Fate does
do that. Wanda cannot kill herself. That was spelled out pretty clearly in the strip you referenced earlier in this discussion.
Lilwik wrote:Delphie doesn't see the plan of some supernatural entity; what she sees is an insight into Wanda's personality: that Wanda isn't the kind of person who would kill herself to prove a point about Fate.
More completely unsupported assumptions. Delphie is a predictamancer. She knows how fate works. She hardly knows Wanda, and there is nothing in the canon which suggests that she knows Wanda's personality well enough to judge that she won't kill herself. Delphie says only "You won't", because Delphie knows that Wanda has a fate which must
be played out, which is supported in the canon. And Delphie knows that this fate does not involve Wanda killing herself, at least not until her fate is resolved.
Lilwik wrote:There bracer didn't clearly indicate that. The brace produced two answers.
And I've explained exactly why the bracer gave two answers. But you have not. You've made two complete ass-pull guesses which have no canon to support them, and you've decided that I am wrong. Which is fine, that's your privilege. But your argument appears to boil down to "nuh-uh!" You could just as easily claim that shockamancy or dollamancy must have caused the wonky behavior of the bracer, for all the evidence that you have. Any wild-ass guess will do in a pinch, right?
Lilwik wrote:But how can you be sure which is the cause and which is the effect? Does Parson fail to go home because Fate demands he do certain things, or does he have a certain Fate because he fails to go home?
I don't see the question as being relevant. Regardless of the answer, it has nothing to do with carnmancy, and nothing to do with an unread scroll interfering with mathamancy. Both answers do, however, have everything to do with fate.
Lilwik wrote:Charlie's future calculations would lose all value if Parson died or went home, so it costs almost nothing for Charlie to spend one.
Which is a correct statement, and which assumes that Charlie is under the impression that if Parson reads the scroll that he would go away forever. After all, Charlie spent a lot of time on that scroll, which implies that he had a hand in its manufacture. But you've failed to answer the question as to what possible motivation Charlie might have to ask for a calculation and then screw with the responses of the bracer.
Lilwik wrote:Or maybe Charlie only wanted the bracer's answer to be confusing enough to get Parson to want to find the real answer by practical experiment.
That's just a steaming pile of crap. Again, it's down to motivation. If Charlie can screw with the bracer, and if Charlie wants Parson to read the scroll, then Charlie has every motivation to allow the bracer to present the near-100% number and zero motivation to cause it to present the 0% number.
Lilwik wrote:I don't know anything about the canon you are talking about, but I agree that I am on shaky ground, and so are you. No one knows what caused the bracer to go wonky and there is no canon to back up any theories about that because it is a completely unprecedented event. We can only guess. Your guess is as good as mine.
You should know what canon I'm talking about, because I've laid it out for you about three different times. Carefully. Using small words. Walking you through it in baby steps. My guess does
have canon to support it. You know, things that we've actually seen in the comic, as opposed to your guesses about scrolls being able to interfere with mathamancy artifacts, or carnymancy somehow being involved when there's absolutely no indication that this could be the case.
Lilwik wrote:I never claimed to have concluded that or anything like it. I'm just speculating, mentioning possibilities. I admit with no hesitation that I don't know what caused the bracer to go wonky.
Anything is a possibility, the universe is infinite. But logic dictates that wild ass guesses be given a vastly lower amount of credence than a guess which is supported in all aspects by what we've actually seen happen. Do you understand this?
Lilwik wrote:Carnymancy lingers. Just look at Sylvia who had Carnymancy cast upon her many turns ago in a distant hex, and yet strange stuff was still happening around her to hold back death until she finally won that little game.
Please note that this use of 'lingering' carnymancy had a good deal of exposition devoted to it. You know, the canon I keep referring to. Where is the exposition suggesting that carnymancy is influencing the bracer or the casting of the scroll?
Lilwik wrote:Episode 24 claims that Fate can be defied, but will not be defied, meaning that people have free will to make their own decisions and Fate would not step in to stop Parson from reading the scroll. This contradicts how the sound effect suggests that the falling beam is Fate's active participation.
You have misunderstood. Delphie was describing "the easy way" vs. "the hard way." A person can fight against their fate, but all that does is to make things more painful for them along the way to the inevitable conclusion.
Lilwik wrote:Either Delphie is right or the sound effect is right, and only one of those two is a joke so I know which one I trust more.
Delphie's description of how fate works does not in any way contradict any conclusion that the falling beam was caused by fate. It supports it.