Summer Updates - 047

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Re: Summer Updates - 047

Postby Saladman » Mon Oct 26, 2009 8:06 pm

He was left with his own thoughts now. A little meaner and a little darker than what he was willing to share with his secret lover.

He was seriously considering the chances that he might have been set up here.


In other words, somebody's loyalty score just took a hit. All the talk about Duty, natural thinkamancy and auto-disbanding only applies as long as units have a positive loyalty score (which, granted, is most of the time). I'm not sure Caesar is disloyal yet, but there's a chance now.

This puts Caesar in a tough spot. There's not a lot of options for an unwanted or disloyal unit in Erfworld. Trying to make your upkeep as a merc barbarian as Jillian did won't cut it if you stick around in your old side's neighborhood. Your neighbors won't trust a turncoat, they know you won't have any loyalty score towards them worth speaking of. Disobeying even a suicidal order without a strong excuse of duty reveals your disloyalty. I assume taking over your side would be possible for a disloyal heir-designate chief warlord, and that starts to look like the only personally rational choice. I'm not sure Caesar would do that to Transylvito after helping Don put down his son's rebellion though.

Its interesting to me that in a world with Duty and loyalty scores, rulers, disloyal and barbarian units are the only people with true free will. Wanda for one, possibly Caesar now also. Who knows, maybe he'll still choose to act as if he had Duty.

I truly cannot see Caesar going to Gobwin Knob though. He's got no more reason to expect a warm welcome from Stanley and GW than he would from Carpool. If it were to happen, I don't expect it will be by Caesar's choice.
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Re: Summer Updates - 047

Postby Lady Nerevar » Mon Oct 26, 2009 8:21 pm

I truly cannot see Caesar going to Gobwin Knob though. He's got no more reason to expect a warm welcome from Stanley and GW than he would from Carpool. If it were to happen, I don't expect it will be by Caesar's choice.


He is a "mere noble," betrayed by a king and possibly set up to die. He obviously doesnt believe in royalty or any divine mandate, which is a belief shared by GK (well, they believe in divine mandate via Arkentools, but thats a whole 'nother story). If Don keeps obsessing about royalty Caesar will only continue to feel isolated and betrayed. when boop hits the fan i think it quite likely that he will choose a side where he can have a high position regardless of his low birth. Especially if he thinks it will save his life.

Stanley is going to be forced to eat crow, rely on Parson to pull his fat out of the fire, and join RCC2.

they would never have him. RRC2 is not about fighting Wanda, it is about getting rid of unroyals in positions of power. in other words, stanley.
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Re: Summer Updates - 047

Postby spectralphoenix » Mon Oct 26, 2009 8:42 pm

I'm thinking Stanley's days may be numbered. If Wanda has a way to avoid disbanding, either on her own or using Ansom as a puppet leader, she can assassinate Stanley. Parson would then become a barbarian (we already know he doesn't follow the same loyalty and disbanding rules everyone else does, and from a "metagame" perspective he seems unlikely to be disbanded before the real action starts) and join up with the RCC2 (unlikely, seeing as most of the sides probably hold a grudge after book 1) or else with Caesar and maybe Vinny defecting from TV to form a third group.

It all boils down to something happening to put Parson on the receiving end of the Army of Doom.
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Re: Summer Updates - 047

Postby raphfrk » Mon Oct 26, 2009 8:45 pm

Saladman wrote:In other words, somebody's loyalty score just took a hit. All the talk about Duty, natural thinkamancy and auto-disbanding only applies as long as units have a positive loyalty score (which, granted, is most of the time). I'm not sure Caesar is disloyal yet, but there's a chance now.


I think the auto-disband only happens if you disobey a direct order.

"Disobedience may cause the unit to disband."

This might leave some flexibility, if a unit obeys the letter of an order.

Also, an Heir might have some exemptions to that rule.
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Re: Summer Updates - 047

Postby NemFXcore » Mon Oct 26, 2009 8:47 pm

I think there is a whole lot of straight up speculation going on here, so I'm going to deal with this as accurately as possible.

Is Don King setting up Caesar? No, I don't think so. As it was clearly explained in book one, a flying unit can only be attacked by archers, forest capable units, and other flyers. That said, if they had attacked by air, chances are the fight would have been more one sided.

Who sold who out? Vinnie did express, albiet through thought only, that it would only be a matter of time before someone saved up enough to have something nasty waiting for them.Just cause it feels like a setup, doesn't mean it is. Chances are, this was a long time coming thing.

Position of heir? While it's all coincidental, and there is a possibility of it, I can't see Don, being a fairly reasonable guy, just ignoring his principles. Indeed, there might be a more reasonable explanation for why he's (potentially) popping a heir. Maybe you have to use royalty, or a barbarian, or a heir designate, to start a side. Since Unaroyal's city is now technically abandoned, maybe Don has no choice but to pop a noble to go claim it for him.

Granted, that's assuming the last line wasn't a goof up. It very well might have been that he had only just heard that FAQ was popping a heir, and that it was a goof up in writing.
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Re: Summer Updates - 047

Postby gaiaswill » Mon Oct 26, 2009 8:51 pm

Lady Nerevar wrote:If Don keeps obsessing about royalty Caesar will only continue to feel isolated and betrayed. when boop hits the fan i think it quite likely that he will choose a side where he can have a high position regardless of his low birth. Especially if he thinks it will save his life.


For the most part, I agree with this, except the last part. I do believe Caesar when he says to Bunny (and to himself) that he isn't afraid of dying; I don't think he would turn on Don King to save his own life. But for those he loves and respects: his fellow "common" or "barely noble" warlords and for Bunny, I think he would. Don King said himself (to Jillian) that his former heirs were patently unsuited for rule, which is why he switched to a more meritocratic system of rule. To go back on this by popping a separate heir just for royal blood betrays the entire system and the people within it; Transylvito goes back to being run backwards.

Don King has cultivated the image among his own people that he is of a more fair-minded mindset. This is who they pledged their loyalty and respect to. But when the s**t hits the fan, Don goes full-on royal, showing off clearly that he isn't "better" than the other royals after all. Loyalty takes a hit? No kidding! And Caesar won't be alone.

Yosarian wrote:Actually, it sounds like Don hasn't bothered to tell Ceaser about the Arkenpliers and the army of decrypted. Which probably is a bad sign for Ceaser.

Ceaser was mostly frustrated that they were fighting a two-front war and not doing well with either, and that's certanly not a sign of stratgic blindlness, especally if he dosn't know what's going on.


This. He is frustrated with the Don's lack of conversation because it means he is out of the loop. It's a snub, a slap in the face, saying that the Chief Warlord's opinion doesn't matter, especially since they used to be quite close. That Don has changed his build order from extra troops to an (expensive) heir must seem extra stupid and wasteful.
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Re: Summer Updates - 047

Postby Banni » Mon Oct 26, 2009 9:22 pm

Long time lurker, but I didn't see anyone putting my views forward for once so I'm forced to actually speak for myself :( . The recent Transylvito obsession with royals makes me think that his priority is producing a royal, ANY royal (regardless of side) who can attune to one of the remaining arkentools, disproving Stanley's claims of a new Titanic mandate. As it stands, the only visible signs of the Titans will on Erf lies in either the hands of Stanley's forces or another non-royal. I'd say unless things change religious fervor combined with fear of the growing military dominance could easily bring many unaligned sides under Gobwin Knob's banner.
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Re: Summer Updates - 047

Postby raphfrk » Mon Oct 26, 2009 9:40 pm

Banni wrote:Long time lurker, but I didn't see anyone putting my views forward for once so I'm forced to actually speak for myself :( . The recent Transylvito obsession with royals makes me think that his priority is producing a royal, ANY royal (regardless of side) who can attune to one of the remaining arkentools, disproving Stanley's claims of a new Titanic mandate.


That is an interesting idea.

There are 4 "known" Arkentools, and currently 3 are in play. I wonder if the 4th known tool is held by a nearby side and his plan might include a hit and run strike. Ofc, he might also be planning to obtain the pliers or the hammer.

Also, with Charlie's larger range, I wonder if he knows of any other ones that are out held by other sides further away.
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Re: Summer Updates - 047

Postby BoopingCynic » Mon Oct 26, 2009 9:44 pm

gaiaswill wrote:
Lady Nerevar wrote:If Don keeps obsessing about royalty Caesar will only continue to feel isolated and betrayed. when boop hits the fan i think it quite likely that he will choose a side where he can have a high position regardless of his low birth. Especially if he thinks it will save his life.


For the most part, I agree with this, except the last part. I do believe Caesar when he says to Bunny (and to himself) that he isn't afraid of dying; I don't think he would turn on Don King to save his own life. But for those he loves and respects: his fellow "common" or "barely noble" warlords and for Bunny, I think he would. Don King said himself (to Jillian) that his former heirs were patently unsuited for rule, which is why he switched to a more meritocratic system of rule. To go back on this by popping a separate heir just for royal blood betrays the entire system and the people within it; Transylvito goes back to being run backwards.

Don King has cultivated the image among his own people that he is of a more fair-minded mindset. This is who they pledged their loyalty and respect to. But when the s**t hits the fan, Don goes full-on royal, showing off clearly that he isn't "better" than the other royals after all. Loyalty takes a hit? No kidding! And Caesar won't be alone.

Yosarian wrote:Actually, it sounds like Don hasn't bothered to tell Ceaser about the Arkenpliers and the army of decrypted. Which probably is a bad sign for Ceaser.

Ceaser was mostly frustrated that they were fighting a two-front war and not doing well with either, and that's certanly not a sign of stratgic blindlness, especally if he dosn't know what's going on.


This. He is frustrated with the Don's lack of conversation because it means he is out of the loop. It's a snub, a slap in the face, saying that the Chief Warlord's opinion doesn't matter, especially since they used to be quite close. That Don has changed his build order from extra troops to an (expensive) heir must seem extra stupid and wasteful.


This seems that the death of Bea really destabilized him, made him more orthodox, less free and effective and his side is going to probably survive but only when they are backed against a wall and Don King croaked or retired leaving Caesar as King and him having a royal heir that was being popped when he was made king.
I think it is very elegant solution to the 2 heirs problem, making the older more powerful one king but also having a royal heir keeping it in the RCCII :ugeek:.
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Re: Summer Updates - 047

Postby name lips » Mon Oct 26, 2009 11:07 pm

Gah! I just noticed something... I haven't read the thread so I don't know if it's been observed...


...that the burning Garrison of Chocula is snap, crackle, and popping.


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Re: Summer Updates - 047

Postby Dancing Cthulhu » Mon Oct 26, 2009 11:15 pm

MarbitChow wrote:
Dancing Cthulhu wrote:Still Wanda seems like the only obvious weak link in GK current offensive, simply because GK needs her attuned with the pliers to continue as it is.


Wanda is hardly a weak link. She's smart enough to get both Ansom's and Parson's adivce, constantly. The only way to get to her phyically is to have already defeated the rest of the army, and she's a powerful caster wielding an artifact. She's going to have the most powerful units available guarding her.


Heh, I didn't mean to imply it would be easy (it was in vague response to the idea of Charlie deciding to throw every Archon he has at a problem). Just that for GK at the moment all its war like activities rest on two individuals - Stanley (purely for continued existence) and Wanda for its entire policy of expansion/conquest via decryption. And I imagine from a certain perspective it might be easier to get the leader in the field (even with their strong army) then the leader tucked up in his fortress with his dwagons and what have you.

The weak link in GK's current offensive is now, and always has been, Stanley.
GK has all the tools in place it needs to take over the world, and the biggest thing standing in its way is the Tool.


Maybe, but he is staying out of the way, safely holed up at base where he can't be croaked, which is all they need him to do. And sure the process might be streamlinable, but he isn't interfering to much with the one who seems to hold the real power at the moment - Wanda.

BLANDCorporatio wrote:"A long lost heir to the Almohad line has gathered followers and is occupying Granada". Gawd, I hated those pop-ups in Medieval: Total War. Here you have it, a side completely obliterated and then, out of the blue, a royal pops back on the map with 2000 rather good units considering they were supposedly drawn from peasantry. Very, very annoying.


Ah yes. The only thing worse was the blasted Pope. I mean I might control 85% of the world (woo Byzantine Empire! Or if you prefer East Roman Empire) and the only other free nations are Islamic ones - where on earth is he hiding out while he raises his army?

Heh, Popes seemed to pop like Barbarian warlords.

Lady Nerevar wrote:He is a "mere noble," betrayed by a king and possibly set up to die. He obviously doesnt believe in royalty or any divine mandate, which is a belief shared by GK (well, they believe in divine mandate via Arkentools, but thats a whole 'nother story). If Don keeps obsessing about royalty Caesar will only continue to feel isolated and betrayed. when boop hits the fan i think it quite likely that he will choose a side where he can have a high position regardless of his low birth. Especially if he thinks it will save his life.


I think the problem with a turn to GK is that it seems clear that Caesar really does care about TV. His concerns about his claim as heir might be great (which ties into the whole birthright/royal/non-royal thing), but from the update it seems they are still trumped by the fact he doesn't believe the Don is making the right decisions to protect TV from its enemies.

Running off to join GK wouldn't help TV, it would help him. I'd say his loyalty towards the Don might be falling, but his loyalty towards TV isn't. If he did try and dethrone the Don he'd probably justify it as "doing it for the side, not myself".

NemFXcore wrote:Position of heir? While it's all coincidental, and there is a possibility of it, I can't see Don, being a fairly reasonable guy, just ignoring his principles. Indeed, there might be a more reasonable explanation for why he's (potentially) popping a heir. Maybe you have to use royalty, or a barbarian, or a heir designate, to start a side. Since Unaroyal's city is now technically abandoned, maybe Don has no choice but to pop a noble to go claim it for him.


I think Jillian or the situation with Faq might have a part of it. I don't know how though. But I agree, I don't think the Don is just abandoning his principles out of some sort of "royals are where it is at". Especially because of his own experience with his previous royal heirs. They weren't suitable to his mind, and presumably he has no assurance a new royal heir is going to be any more suitable. He seems to smart to abandon a sensible system of succession (merit) for one based on royal superiority.
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Re: Summer Updates - 047

Postby moose o death » Tue Oct 27, 2009 12:25 am

jetstone had more than one heir. why can't tv have more than one? the backup heir makes sense if the main heir is getting involved in major skirmishes. he was almost croaked on that turn.

cesar has been groomed for the position the newbie wont have been. the newbie would be another stanley/jillian scenario where a leader ascended to power without adequete training for their position.

but i do see cesar seeing everything as a threat to his position and doing something rash. probably after the new heir makes moves on bunny
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Re: Summer Updates - 047

Postby OneHugeTuck » Tue Oct 27, 2009 12:37 am

NemFXcore wrote:I think there is a whole lot of straight up speculation going on here, so I'm going to deal with this as accurately as possible.



That was awesome, how you dealt with all that speculation with more speculation and opinion! :idea:
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Re: Summer Updates - 047

Postby NemFXcore » Tue Oct 27, 2009 12:42 am

OneHugeTuck wrote:
NemFXcore wrote:I think there is a whole lot of straight up speculation going on here, so I'm going to deal with this as accurately as possible.



That was awesome, how you dealt with all that speculation with more speculation and opinion! :idea:


Yeah, but mine was better :D
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Re: Summer Updates - 047

Postby gaiaswill » Tue Oct 27, 2009 12:48 am

I admit that I do want to "think the best of" Don King and his motivations. He actually seemed like a sane ruler. But my opinion of him is slipping really...

Wanting Jillian to restart Faq (a royal side) instead of claiming it himself?
Ok, I can justify that by saying he wants a puppet kingdom rather than more cities. A proxy kingdom that you mostly control can be useful, especially if they specialize (like Faq's flyers). It's a bit like having a group of mercenaries/special forces on call.

Wanting Jillian to produce an heir so early in her production order?
Ok, I can justify that by saying he expects fighting soon and wants Jillian ready for field duty. She IS pretty damn good at croaking things after all. But without an heir she would risk ending her side and he wants to protect his investment in Faq. I'm sure Jillian could even support that line of reasoning.

Producing an expensive royal heir of his own in the middle of a two-front war? When he has a perfectly good and competent one already?
THAT'S a lot harder to swallow. This action is pretty stupid from a "ruthless" get-things-done point of view, but makes a lot of sense if you consider "preserving the royal bloodline" a priority. I mean, hey, your side may get wiped, but at least the royal genes survived! Combined with the snubbing of his formerly close (and barely noble) Chief Warlord, this does not paint a good picture for Don King's much-vaunted principles.

moose o death wrote:jetstone had more than one heir. why can't tv have more than one? the backup heir makes sense if the main heir is getting involved in major skirmishes. he was almost croaked on that turn.

Normally, I'd agree with you; redundancy can be a good thing. But I wouldn't produce them during the middle of a war. Before TBOGK, Jetstone was mighty, expected a curb-stomp of a siege and likely could spare that luxury. So producing extra heirs during "peacetime" or the building up phase of a war, fine. As a last ditch effort for an endangered capital (with schmuckers and a turnamancer), fine. But otherwise, the ruler could just do what Stanley did--evacuate. Why clog the production queue with an heir?
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Re: Summer Updates - 047

Postby Itzal » Tue Oct 27, 2009 1:28 am

Now I don't remember where it said that Cesar was the heir designate, I remember him being the chief warlord. Can someone point out where it says he's the heir designate?
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Re: Summer Updates - 047

Postby ftl » Tue Oct 27, 2009 1:56 am

Itzal wrote:Now I don't remember where it said that Cesar was the heir designate, I remember him being the chief warlord. Can someone point out where it says he's the heir designate?


http://www.erfworld.com/summer-update-2 ... ng_600.jpg

Don King's gaze went distant for a moment, as if he was seeing into the past. "Caesar Borgata is my heir designate. He earned it. My Warlords respect him like they never respected the Prince or Princess. But he was only Viscount of Vitalis, barely a Noble. Recent events have forced me to reconsider whether or not that should matter."
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Re: Summer Updates - 047

Postby NemFXcore » Tue Oct 27, 2009 2:13 am

Another angle: Vinny.

Don King respects Vinny's intelligence. It's clear that Vinny and Jillian have a thing. One more way to keep her under the Transylvito collective thumb. Vinny might be moving up in the world.
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Re: Summer Updates - 047

Postby Dr Quest DFA » Tue Oct 27, 2009 2:16 am

moose o death wrote:jetstone had more than one heir. why can't tv have more than one? the backup heir makes sense if the main heir is getting involved in major skirmishes. he was almost croaked on that turn...


They did have multiple heirs at one point. Don King speaks of a son AND daughter. We know the son was croaked in an attempted coup, but we never hear what happened to the daughter, just that the troops respect Caesar more than the daughter. Does Don King view Jillian as the daughter he wished he had instead of the one he did have?

Another thought: There have been 14 turns since the previous update (where Parson interviewed the Archons) and 12 turns since the Carpoolundians pulled their first trap at Carport (unclear if the city was recaptured). It might be possible that Parson also learned of the "hot spots" that Charlie constantly monitors in hopes of getting business. One of them could certainly have been the Carpool vs. Transylvito border skirmishes. That sort of sustained, low cost conflict would have been rather profitable for Charlie, if either side had bought his services. Knowing about this and its proximity to GK, perhaps Parson has been pulling some behind the scene diplomacy. He offers the Carpoolundians some tactical and mathemancy advice and they keep the pressure up on Transylvito. Parson would keep one enemy out of the RCCII and keep pressure on a member of the RCCII, killing two birds with one stone.

RE Don setting Caesar up: I think Don King is too smart to just scrap a very high level and effective chief warlord just because he didn't want him as an heir any more. Likely Don King is too caught up with planning against GK and has let other issues fall to the side. It is certainly possible he thought this attack by the Carpoolundians was just like all the rest. They occasionally get uppity and then he sends in the troops and smacks them around until they pay up. Given the lack of communication between Caesar and Don recently, he might not appreciate the situation Caesar has had to deal with.

One final note, on the topic of loose ends, back in update 44 (38 turns since TBfGK), Maggie says she will be very busy in the next round and will be unable to do rounds with Parson. As far as I am aware we still do not know what that was about. Coordinating the decapitation strike? Backroom diplomacy with non-aligned factions? I for one would be eager to discover this information.
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Re: Summer Updates - 047

Postby Saladman » Tue Oct 27, 2009 3:04 am

Dr Quest DFA wrote:One final note, on the topic of loose ends, back in update 44 (38 turns since TBfGK), Maggie says she will be very busy in the next round and will be unable to do rounds with Parson. As far as I am aware we still do not know what that was about. Coordinating the decapitation strike? Backroom diplomacy with non-aligned factions? I for one would be eager to discover this information.


Occam's razor says that was just Maggie trying to set Parson up with some hot three-way Archon action. Kind of a Counselor Troi without boundaries approach to her side's mental health. (And, really, its not like a thinkamancer is going to be blind to these kinds of things.) Not everything that comes out of a characters mouth has to be taken as literal canon.
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