Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 012

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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 012

Postby Whispri » Thu Dec 01, 2011 9:12 pm

Kreistor wrote:First, she has never been to the MK, and so never studied cross-discipline. She already spoke about that.

Worrying about that bit of rhetoric about her debt is a waste of time. We don't know how Erfworld calculates the debt, nor how it could be paid. Maybe she pays it by eating salt tablets. We'll never know, until maybe the last pages of the last Book.

As did I.

... She's supposed to be extremely valuable. She's supposed to have an incredible debt to pay. She has not yet done anything to demonstrate why she should suffer this curse. Therefore...

multilis wrote:
Whispri wrote:And... she's supposed to have an astronomical value. A value that carries a terrible debt to pay. And so far, she hasn't done anything a bog standard Croakamancer could not have(With a little help from Clay I suppose). So she has to be more than Caster #7894653, a Croakamancer with (allegedly) a permanent Boost... So, what else is there to earn her this huge debt save skill at war? A hidden, bonus speciality? Is being destined to bond to the Arkenpliers really all there is to it?

She started out as a level 1 caster, she is still alive and at least level 3 in very short period of time. Her side is basically outnumbered 5 to 1 as their only friends are really helping the enemy set up ambushes. I suspect your average level 1 croakmancer would likely have been killed several times in ambushes, and would have most likely had spells such as uncroak every unit in this hex fizzle/fail, and would have made a mess out of many of the uncroakings... she likely has effectively several levels better of croakomancy then she should because of the luck boost.

Normally a caster is worth much more than a warlord, and she is a super-luck boosted caster. In smilar way I suspect Jack and Jill are also super luck boosted based on how their eyes also have pupils like Parson. In Jill's case seems part of her luck is everyone falling in love with her.

"We don't know how Erfworld calculates the debt, nor how it could be paid." - We have hint that a luckomancer by helping one person takes luck from others on same side, and that Wanda has fate give the luck. So it might be that everyone else around wanda suffers some bad luck as part of that debt.

Her level rate is actually rather unimpressive for three battles and an unknown number of field skirmishes (We've seen a Hobgobwyn Heavy gain two levels in as many minor engagements). Yer bog standard Croakamancer would have been boosted by Clay, achieving the same effect. A Croakamancer after all, belongs in the thick of the fighting.

So she's boosted, that should pay for itself by Booping over others as needed. She's incured an astronomical debt just by being brought into existence. Being good at her job doesn't earn a bill like that, she has to be magnificent. Or else she's been cursed for no reason. She's going to accidentally an entire side. What could be worth that level of bad luck? Never mind that Croakamancy seems to be a one trick pony, it's a good trick, but one that requires a lot of muscle to make work.
Last edited by Whispri on Thu Dec 01, 2011 10:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 012

Postby ScegfOd » Thu Dec 01, 2011 9:55 pm

Whispri wrote: She's going to accidentally an entire side.

Fixed That For You :P

sorry, couldn't resist :mrgreen:

on topic: I like how they could smell a trap and went anyway, a very good example of military intelligence in action!
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 012

Postby Whispri » Thu Dec 01, 2011 10:15 pm

ScegfOd wrote:
Whispri wrote: She's going to accidentally an entire side.

Fixed That For You :P

sorry, couldn't resist :mrgreen:

on topic: I like how they could smell a trap and went anyway, a very good example of military intelligence in action!

Well that was an awful place to accidentally a word. :oops:
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 012

Postby Housellama » Thu Dec 01, 2011 10:17 pm

The problem here is that we don't really know anything about how Erf and Fate and Numbers actually work. We don't really know all that much about how Thinkamancy works. We know a little bit, but not much. We know nothing at all about how Mathamancy works. And finally, we don't really know anything about how Predictamancy actually works, and we probably never will. We might get bits and pieces, but only enough to heighten the tension.

Erfworld isn't a game. It looks like a game, it smells like a game, it even acts like a game, but it isn't a game. That makes a HUGE difference here. These aren't pieces, they are people. This isn't a set of rules, it's the way their world works. These are real people with real connections and emotions that experience real pain. That changes things considerably.
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 012

Postby Saladman » Thu Dec 01, 2011 10:29 pm

Whispri wrote:... She's supposed to be extremely valuable. She's supposed to have an incredible debt to pay. She has not yet done anything to demonstrate why she should suffer this curse. Therefore...

...

And... she's supposed to have an astronomical value. A value that carries a terrible debt to pay. And so far, she hasn't done anything a bog standard Croakamancer could not have(With a little help from Clay I suppose). So she has to be more than Caster #7894653, a Croakamancer with (allegedly) a permanent Boost... So, what else is there to earn her this huge debt save skill at war? A hidden, bonus speciality? Is being destined to bond to the Arkenpliers really all there is to it?

...

So she's boosted, that should pay for itself by Booping over others as needed. She's incured an astronomical debt just by being brought into existence. Being good at her job doesn't earn a bill like that, she has to be magnificent. Or else she's been cursed for no reason. She's going accidentally an entire side. What could be worth that level of bad luck? Never mind that Croakamancy seems to be a one trick pony, it's a good trick, but one that requires a lot of muscle to make work.


Yes.

But that's a pretty big deal in it's own right when you think about it. The tools are both divine, and unbalanced in a world apparently predicated on game balance. One made Charlie possibly the strongest side in the world at one point, without anyone knowing that. Another gave Wanda a balance-breaking army. Attunement itself isn't a given; Jetstone guarded one for some great length of time, trying it on all their princes, and never unlocked it. And that's before considering her belief that the fate of the tools is to be brought together, for a purpose she does not know. I happen to think she's right about that also; a further debt.

Or- just being Fated to continually live long enough to do all that, through the fall of at least two sides, could itself be the debt, the "high rolls" that get charged against on the sides unlucky enough to have her.

It seems to me you're disappointed she's not in god mode in combat right now, but I don't see why that has to be the form of the debt in the first place. Unless I'm not understanding your point at all, it just doesn't necessarily follow.
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 012

Postby Kreistor » Thu Dec 01, 2011 10:39 pm

Whispri wrote:... She's supposed to be extremely valuable. She's supposed to have an incredible debt to pay. She has not yet done anything to demonstrate why she should suffer this curse. Therefore...


A debt for being born? Yeah, I reject that on its face. Someone's been listening to an abusive Mom too closely.

Wanda is not aware of any such debt. She knows nothing of an account some not-even-definitely-intelligent force has decided she owes. She does her Duty and her Function as best she can. Don't expect anything more.
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 012

Postby Lamech » Thu Dec 01, 2011 10:52 pm

ScegfOd wrote:
Whispri wrote: She's going to accidentally entire sides.

Fixed That For You :P

sorry, couldn't resist :mrgreen:

on topic: I like how they could smell a trap and went anyway, a very good example of military intelligence in action!

Fixed it again for you guys. Sheesh we know she got at least two sides. We finally have the explanation for the dwagons. Wanda was still screwing over her side. But yes, she is clearly one of the best units in we've seen so far. First off, she quite talented at thinkamancy. Also is a croakamancer. Also other flavors of magick. Also matches artifact wielding warlords two levels above her. Also attuned to an arkentool. Basically the side paid for a croakamancer and they got a boosted-thinka-croaka-unknowna-mancer-warlord-tool. And from how the damage she did in BfGK, and smashed Unaroyal during the summer I think it was well worth it.

Actually on arkentool note: Didn't Stanley accidentally a side. Or accidentally-on-purpose a side?
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 012

Postby Mrtyuh » Thu Dec 01, 2011 11:07 pm

Whispri wrote:Speaking of which, what is it Wanda sees in the mirror but can't identify?

I assume that the Wanda in the mirror is all, "I'm spooky and powerful and hot and OBEY ME!". As for the difference between them, other than several levels and a couple ranks of mastery, Lady Firebaugh of Goodminton of the (nearly-lost) Croatan tribe seems quite capable of love, while Lady Firebaugh of Gobwin Knob of the (lost) Croatan tribe has been described as a loveless woman. So, it is possible the powerful and commanding reflection Wanda sees in the mirror is in fact a diminished version of herself.

Whispri wrote:Sorry to snip, but do we know that? When was the word of Delphie "We'll pop a Warlord, honest guv" Temple declared reliable? There seems to be something going on with all the stuff Wanda keeps finding, but Chiefness?

I made a similar observation a couple of posts earlier, but, given present Wanda's fatalistic view on Fate, it would not be unreasonable to suppose that every Prediction about which she has been informed has come to pass. Indeed, given the fact that present Wanda's current views are almost identical to Delphie's, it is entirely plausible to believe that Delphie, or at least her Predictions, will be vindicated in Wanda's eyes.

multilis wrote:"We don't know how Erfworld calculates the debt, nor how it could be paid." - We have hint that a luckomancer by helping one person takes luck from others on same side, and that Wanda has fate give the luck. So it might be that everyone else around wanda suffers some bad luck as part of that debt.

When Wanda was describing to Parson lot of being an instrument of Fate, she says, "You will suffer, as you pursue your path. You will grieve. And lose." This seems to be Wanda's experience. The price paid may not be paid by the unit itself. It may be paid by those around it, or it may be paid emotionally. Also, the first page of Book 0 also mentioned that if the exact price is paid, a unit may even come back. This sounds alot like Decryption. It is possible that Wanda has to pay the exact price for every unit she brings back. They may be part of the reason her own cost is so high. Also, Wanda's Luckamancer might also explain some of the weird numbers we've seen, such as all the Dwagons Stanley found on the way to Faq or the lack of Gobwins around Gobwin Knob. Of course, this is all speculation.

ParsonIsOP wrote:The first definition is not problematic because it's just a colloquialism that means you have rights you enjoy. Rights are a social-legal construct and NOT a metaphysical condition.

Without going in-depth, the second definition is obviously nonsensical. You can have all the choice you want in the world. It doesn't mean those choices are immune to causality or that they grant you the kind of power you wish you had over your life. So when I say "illusion," I mean that people maintain the fantasy that they are more powerful than they actually are. People maintain this belief for completely irrational reasons.

The difference between our Cassandra and ordinary people is simply that it's more difficult for her to participate in this sort of self-deception.

I agree with you regarding free will. It is impossible to remove casual effects, so a person really doesn't have any choice. If a person with a certain personality finds themself in a certain situation with certain knowledge, they will act or react a certain way. There is a difference here, though. Erfworld is fiction. Ultimately, Fate and free will operate however the author decides they do. Given the fact they are one of the central themes of the comic, I bet Rob has it figured out. I've seen it work multiple ways in different media. I've seen stories where Fate is unmutable, semi-mutable or easily ignored by the protagonists. Personally, I find the last to almost always be a cop out, like the author painted themself into a corner and wasn't clever enough to figure out a better solution. I have faith in Rob as a writer to avoid this pitfall. On the other hand, I have no more idea how Fate actually works in Erfworld than anyone else here. Hence, speculation.

ParsonIsOP wrote:Two. This isn't a large sample size.

And Doctor House will tell you that people always lie. Corollary: Lying isn't necessarily evil or malicious.

Also, Janis isn't lying about anything important. The audience already knows that Janis thinks that Parson is Erfworld's best chance for peace. It's not such a stretch to see why she might support Parson. And insofar as her opposition goes, it only goes against the Thinkamancers trying to claim custody of Parson. This isn't an argument about whether Parson belongs in MK, but a power play.

Assuming Janis isn't actually Predicting, she could just very well be predicting. Any canny observer could guess at what Janis might do in this situation.

As for manipulation, Marie is making Janis do what Janis wants to do? Ummm. Whatever. That horse isn't going anywhere.

*sigh* Now I remember why I hardly ever post here.

I wasn't making a point about the nature of Predictamancers, I was making a point about how we, the readers, don't know how Predictamancy works because the Predictamancers are unreliable narrators.

Yes, two is, scientifically speaking, the worst possible sample, because, in case of divergence, there is no way to know which is right. Still, we know that the Predictamancers, as a grou,p have manipulated the Thinkamancers, as a group, since the Thinkamancers only think they know what is going on. We also do not know the Predictamancers' agenda. Just as they've manipulated the Thinkamancers, it is possible they've lied to Janis and the Florists about their aims.

I never claimed lying was malicious. It is always manipulative. Even if it is a child telling their mother that they took the trash out when they really haven't so they don't get yelled at. It is manipulative.

Marie is the Predictamancer. Janis is a Hippiemancer. Janis is a pacifist. Janis doesn't want to attack anyone. Marie is telling Janis that Marie has Predicted that Janis will stack with Parson and attack the Thinkamancers if necessary. Doing so would be very against Janis's nature. Marie telling Janis that, whether it is manipulative.

Also, my point at the time was, once again, we do not know what is an actual Prediction, and what is pure manipulation. We have seen both known Predictamancers end sentences with, "this I Predict." We, the readers, have no way of knowing if these are actual Predictions or merely rhetorical devices used by Predictamancers to get others to do what they think they should. We do not know what it looks like when a Predictamancer casts. It is probably alot more subtle than many casters, but we know there is a spark when a Luckamancer casts, so I think we should see something. What we do know is that Marie did not know that Parson was coming to the Magic Kingdom, although Predictamancers did know something was going to happen there. Unless she is making Predictions as we watch, which I'll admit is possible, there is no way she could have Predicted Janis stacking with Parson, since didn't Predict he would come. That would make her statement to Janis rhetorical.

Of course, what do I know.
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 012

Postby Housellama » Fri Dec 02, 2011 12:14 am

Mrtyuh wrote:I wasn't making a point about the nature of Predictamancers, I was making a point about how we, the readers, don't know how Predictamancy works because the Predictamancers are unreliable narrators.


Mrtyuh wrote:I never claimed lying was malicious. It is always manipulative. Even if it is a child telling their mother that they took the trash out when they really haven't so they don't get yelled at. It is manipulative.

Marie is the Predictamancer. Janis is a Hippiemancer. Janis is a pacifist. Janis doesn't want to attack anyone. Marie is telling Janis that Marie has Predicted that Janis will stack with Parson and attack the Thinkamancers if necessary. Doing so would be very against Janis's nature. Marie telling Janis that, whether it is manipulative.

Also, my point at the time was, once again, we do not know what is an actual Prediction, and what is pure manipulation. We have seen both known Predictamancers end sentences with, "this I Predict." We, the readers, have no way of knowing if these are actual Predictions or merely rhetorical devices used by Predictamancers to get others to do what they think they should. We do not know what it looks like when a Predictamancer casts. It is probably alot more subtle than many casters, but we know there is a spark when a Luckamancer casts, so I think we should see something. What we do know is that Marie did not know that Parson was coming to the Magic Kingdom, although Predictamancers did know something was going to happen there. Unless she is making Predictions as we watch, which I'll admit is possible, there is no way she could have Predicted Janis stacking with Parson, since didn't Predict he would come. That would make her statement to Janis rhetorical.


This is the point that I've been making since Marie appeared on the scene as anything but a figure in the background. We don't know ANYTHING about how Predictamancy actually works. All we have is some Predictamancers, one of whom is a confirmed liar and the other is pretty booping shifty even if we haven't caught her in an open lie, SAYING "This is what I have Predicted" and everyone (well, most everyone) taking it as gospel truth. We don't know ANYTHING. All we know is that they SAID "This is what I have Predicted." Absolutely nothing more. Period. We cannot confirm any on-screen OR off-screen casting of Predictamancy. We cannot confirm anything about the mechanics of Predictamancy. No character has said anything reliable about how Fate or Predictamancy actually functions. All we have about Predictamancy is smoke and mirrors and words from very unreliable narrators. And that's more than what we have on Fate, which is either folklore or fanatical ideals.

We don't know BOOP. You guys can say anything you want, but when it comes down to what we can actually confirm, we can't confirm ANYTHING, because we have nothing to confirm it WITH. We got NOTHING, folks. Absolutely no hard, conclusive evidence of ANY kind about Predictamancy. Nada. Nuttin. Zilch. Zip. Zero. Until we do, anything we say about Predictamancy is speculation. The only question is how wild is it. Anyone who says otherwise had better be able to point to some SOLID factual evidence in the story that will stand up to scrutiny. And if anyone can find some thus far, you are a better man or woman than I.
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 012

Postby gameboy1234 » Fri Dec 02, 2011 10:25 am

Kreistor wrote:
Whispri wrote:... She's supposed to be extremely valuable. She's supposed to have an incredible debt to pay. She has not yet done anything to demonstrate why she should suffer this curse. Therefore...


A debt for being born? Yeah, I reject that on its face. Someone's been listening to an abusive Mom too closely.


No I think it works. Plenty of tragic figures in for example Greek literature have prophesies made for them at birth. Really I think this is just Rob's way of breaking the fourth wall slightly and telegraphing to his readers that "I'm going to put Wanda through the wringer." Saying there's a "debt to pay" is just a slightly poetic way of saying there's going to be a lot of tragedy in Wanda's story. Whether she's a tragic hero or a tragic villain -- an Oedipus or a MacBeth -- remains to be seen.

(However, I'm in favor of her being a tragic hero. She's flawed, but ultimately it's fate, not her, that's pulling the strings. And Rob. ;))
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 012

Postby gameboy1234 » Fri Dec 02, 2011 10:26 am

P.S. Speaking of Rob pulling strings, when the heck is 13 going to come out, darn it?
"Do it?" Dan, I'm not a Republic serial villain. Do you seriously think I'd explain my master-stroke if there remained the slightest chance of you affecting its outcome?

I did it thirty-five minutes ago.

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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 012

Postby Whispri » Fri Dec 02, 2011 1:15 pm

Saladman wrote:
Whispri wrote:... She's supposed to be extremely valuable. She's supposed to have an incredible debt to pay. She has not yet done anything to demonstrate why she should suffer this curse. Therefore...

...

And... she's supposed to have an astronomical value. A value that carries a terrible debt to pay. And so far, she hasn't done anything a bog standard Croakamancer could not have(With a little help from Clay I suppose). So she has to be more than Caster #7894653, a Croakamancer with (allegedly) a permanent Boost... So, what else is there to earn her this huge debt save skill at war? A hidden, bonus speciality? Is being destined to bond to the Arkenpliers really all there is to it?

...

So she's boosted, that should pay for itself by Booping over others as needed. She's incured an astronomical debt just by being brought into existence. Being good at her job doesn't earn a bill like that, she has to be magnificent. Or else she's been cursed for no reason. She's going accidentally an entire side. What could be worth that level of bad luck? Never mind that Croakamancy seems to be a one trick pony, it's a good trick, but one that requires a lot of muscle to make work.


Yes.

But that's a pretty big deal in it's own right when you think about it. The tools are both divine, and unbalanced in a world apparently predicated on game balance. One made Charlie possibly the strongest side in the world at one point, without anyone knowing that. Another gave Wanda a balance-breaking army. Attunement itself isn't a given; Jetstone guarded one for some great length of time, trying it on all their princes, and never unlocked it. And that's before considering her belief that the fate of the tools is to be brought together, for a purpose she does not know. I happen to think she's right about that also; a further debt.

Or- just being Fated to continually live long enough to do all that, through the fall of at least two sides, could itself be the debt, the "high rolls" that get charged against on the sides unlucky enough to have her.

It seems to me you're disappointed she's not in god mode in combat right now, but I don't see why that has to be the form of the debt in the first place. Unless I'm not understanding your point at all, it just doesn't necessarily follow.

God mode? No. Better than a simple Croakamancer mode. To be worth her price she has to be more. Much more. Levels she'll have to earn the same as anyone else. Spells she'll have to study to learn. Boosting should pay for itself as needed. Yet she has an astronomical debt to pay. She has to be capable of something beyond raising the dead or else she's been cheated, plain and simple. 'Will accomplish greatness thousands of turns after everything you love has perished in flames' isn't of much practical use. There should be an upside as well as a down.

The Arkenpliers rendered her Croakamancy obsolete. And the only reason they're having as much impact as they are is that Wanda happened to gain them amidst a pile of Croakamancy porn, after the RCC had suffered a catastrophic defeat. What was it, ten thousand dead? Without that, if she'd gained them when Ansom was bearing down on Stanley's last stronghold with his men? It would have been a different story.

Lamech wrote:
ScegfOd wrote:
Whispri wrote: She's going to accidentally entire sides.

Fixed That For You :P

sorry, couldn't resist :mrgreen:

on topic: I like how they could smell a trap and went anyway, a very good example of military intelligence in action!

Fixed it again for you guys. Sheesh we know she got at least two sides. We finally have the explanation for the dwagons. Wanda was still screwing over her side. But yes, she is clearly one of the best units in we've seen so far. First off, she quite talented at thinkamancy. Also is a croakamancer. Also other flavors of magick. Also matches artifact wielding warlords two levels above her. Also attuned to an arkentool. Basically the side paid for a croakamancer and they got a boosted-thinka-croaka-unknowna-mancer-warlord-tool. And from how the damage she did in BfGK, and smashed Unaroyal during the summer I think it was well worth it.

Actually on arkentool note: Didn't Stanley accidentally a side. Or accidentally-on-purpose a side?

As far as the Thinkamancy goes, she had Scrolls of that. Croakamancy seems like a fairly weak discipline compared to some and is her basic class in any case. She's never actually been shown to cast a spell outside of her discipline with her own power. When it comes to her prowess in battle, you may have a point... but she hardly ever fights. Attuning to the Arkenhammer worked wonders for Stanley until he was given a job he wasn't qualified for. Her side paid for her creation. They received a Croakamancer. And so far? Nothing more. Expecting them to pay through the nose so that someone else can benefit a decade or so down the line might be considered a trifle harsh. I suppose it's possible that Wanda's 'Fate Price' won't impact Goodminton in the slightest, but...

There's no way of telling who was behind the 'accidentally Saline IV' thing, but it was Charlie's style...

Mrtyuh wrote:I assume that the Wanda in the mirror is all, "I'm spooky and powerful and hot and OBEY ME!". As for the difference between them, other than several levels and a couple ranks of mastery, Lady Firebaugh of Goodminton of the (nearly-lost) Croatan tribe seems quite capable of love, while Lady Firebaugh of Gobwin Knob of the (lost) Croatan tribe has been described as a loveless woman. So, it is possible the powerful and commanding reflection Wanda sees in the mirror is in fact a diminished version of herself.

I made a similar observation a couple of posts earlier, but, given present Wanda's fatalistic view on Fate, it would not be unreasonable to suppose that every Prediction about which she has been informed has come to pass. Indeed, given the fact that present Wanda's current views are almost identical to Delphie's, it is entirely plausible to believe that Delphie, or at least her Predictions, will be vindicated in Wanda's eyes.

multilis wrote:"We don't know how Erfworld calculates the debt, nor how it could be paid." - We have hint that a luckomancer by helping one person takes luck from others on same side, and that Wanda has fate give the luck. So it might be that everyone else around wanda suffers some bad luck as part of that debt.

When Wanda was describing to Parson lot of being an instrument of Fate, she says, "You will suffer, as you pursue your path. You will grieve. And lose." This seems to be Wanda's experience. The price paid may not be paid by the unit itself. It may be paid by those around it, or it may be paid emotionally. Also, the first page of Book 0 also mentioned that if the exact price is paid, a unit may even come back. This sounds alot like Decryption. It is possible that Wanda has to pay the exact price for every unit she brings back. They may be part of the reason her own cost is so high. Also, Wanda's Luckamancer might also explain some of the weird numbers we've seen, such as all the Dwagons Stanley found on the way to Faq or the lack of Gobwins around Gobwin Knob. Of course, this is all speculation.

She saw the hot and powerful, wouldn't see the spooky if it waved it's underwear in her face... so that just leaves the 'Obey me' part. The 'loveless' statement is obvious nonsense considering her relationship with Jillian, Janis just doesn't know Wanda as well as she thinks she does.

Delphie's a liar, that she's seen the oncoming doom is the only thing we, or Wanda, can be sure she Predicted. As long as the Doom comes a result of Delphie discrediting herself (like say, Faq launching a raid just to seize Wanda, or a multi Side Anti-Overlord Alliance forming on the destruction of Haffaton) and into place it all falls. Although... Wanda is going to turn to Faq at some point and Turnamancy has been shown to be mind altering sorcery, so maybe that's it.

I would think that the considerable effort of acquiring the corpses in the first place would go a great way to paying that particular price, just as the effort of finding Dwagons pays for the taming of them. Never mind that this would require her to pay for abilities she doesn't have, it would be one thing if she'd popped with the Pliers, it's another to charge her for an Artifact she won't lay eyes on for turns beyond count.
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 012

Postby ParsonIsOP » Fri Dec 02, 2011 5:35 pm

Whispri wrote:... She's supposed to be extremely valuable. She's supposed to have an incredible debt to pay. She has not yet done anything to demonstrate why she should suffer this curse. Therefore...


"Why?" is a bad question to ask. "How?" is usually the much better question. Despite what our wider culture would have you believe, the former question is not profound or interesting. In actuality, it's self-centered and unwarranted.

What Erfworlders are doing here is trying to rationalize why bad things happen to them. They're trying to find justice in the system and failing because it doesn't exist. They're suffering for completely arbitrary reasons and coincidences. It rains on the just and the wicked alike. The idea of a "balance due" acts as a pretend-explanation for why bad things happen.

In matter of point, this was what Lord Firebaugh's rant about Casters was about. If life were being perfectly fair to him, life would be the ring of honor. Warfare would entirely be a matter of integrity and character. But it isn't and he's mature enough to recognize that life isn't fair.

Wanda is suffering because she is Wanda and for no other reason. Her life isn't important, but she thinks that it is. It's a vicious cycle. Any time anything bad happens to her, it'll be part of the self-fulfilling prophecy that she has to "pay" for her Great Destiny.

So she's boosted, that should pay for itself by Booping over others as needed. She's incured an astronomical debt just by being brought into existence. Being good at her job doesn't earn a bill like that, she has to be magnificent. Or else she's been cursed for no reason. She's going to accidentally an entire side. What could be worth that level of bad luck? Never mind that Croakamancy seems to be a one trick pony, it's a good trick, but one that requires a lot of muscle to make work.

No, Mathamancers like to take the mathematical notion of "balancing the equation" to make a ham-fisted metaphor and then subsequently confuse it for a profound metaphysical truth.
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 012

Postby ParsonIsOP » Fri Dec 02, 2011 5:51 pm

Housellama wrote:Erfworld isn't a game. It looks like a game, it smells like a game, it even acts like a game, but it isn't a game. That makes a HUGE difference here. These aren't pieces, they are people. This isn't a set of rules, it's the way their world works. These are real people with real connections and emotions that experience real pain. That changes things considerably.

On the other hand, the game-like laws of Erfworld makes for an amusing juxtaposition to the real world. It's a most effective form of parody, both of our world an its own.

An amusing example of this is how money is an abstraction in the real world that gets taken very seriously. It's one of those fundamental cultural assumptions. Erfworlders have the same assumptions but for entirely different reasons -- money itself is actually a reagent for physical processes. It's doubly amusing because there's an update that shows that Erfworlders have nonetheless invented money (of sorts), as shown in the Jetstonian soldiers.

I loved update where Trammenis was getting existential in the face of his impending doom. The idea that there's philosophical Scorism and at least one character capable of understanding Epicurus's Problem of Evil makes me delighted. The idea that divine agencies "keep track" of our deeds is silly and absurd.
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 012

Postby Mrtyuh » Sun Dec 04, 2011 11:41 am

Housellama wrote:We don't know BOOP. You guys can say anything you want, but when it comes down to what we can actually confirm, we can't confirm ANYTHING, because we have nothing to confirm it WITH. We got NOTHING, folks. Absolutely no hard, conclusive evidence of ANY kind about Predictamancy. Nada. Nuttin. Zilch. Zip. Zero. Until we do, anything we say about Predictamancy is speculation. The only question is how wild is it. Anyone who says otherwise had better be able to point to some SOLID factual evidence in the story that will stand up to scrutiny. And if anyone can find some thus far, you are a better man or woman than I.

Well, we do know that Marie Predicted to Wanda that she would attune to an Arkentool, which came to pass. We know that Marie Predicted to Banhammer that his Kingdom would fall, which came to pass. It is a reasonable to assume that Wanda's experiences with Predictamancer have been accurate, given her current fatalism. So, we do know that Predictamancer works. We don't, however, know how it works or the line between prediction and manipulation.

Whispri wrote:The 'loveless' statement is obvious nonsense considering her relationship with Jillian, Janis just doesn't know Wanda as well as she thinks she does.

I could see an argument made either way. Perhaps Wanda loves Jillian. Perhaps Wanda is incapable of love. If Rob came here and said that Wanda is too emotionally stunted and scarred to actually love, I would have no problem believing it. All we can say for certain is that Wanda is incredibly possessive of Jillian. That does not necessarily equate love. Wanda is possessive of her decrypted, but she also holds them in contempt and values them little or not at all. So, I can see Jillian simply as Wanda's favorite toy.
मृत्युः सर्वहरश्चाहमुद्भवश्च भविष्यताम् ।
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 012

Postby Housellama » Mon Dec 05, 2011 6:30 pm

Mrtyuh wrote:
Housellama wrote:We don't know BOOP. You guys can say anything you want, but when it comes down to what we can actually confirm, we can't confirm ANYTHING, because we have nothing to confirm it WITH. We got NOTHING, folks. Absolutely no hard, conclusive evidence of ANY kind about Predictamancy. Nada. Nuttin. Zilch. Zip. Zero. Until we do, anything we say about Predictamancy is speculation. The only question is how wild is it. Anyone who says otherwise had better be able to point to some SOLID factual evidence in the story that will stand up to scrutiny. And if anyone can find some thus far, you are a better man or woman than I.


Well, we do know that Marie Predicted to Wanda that she would attune to an Arkentool, which came to pass. We know that Marie Predicted to Banhammer that his Kingdom would fall, which came to pass. It is a reasonable to assume that Wanda's experiences with Predictamancer have been accurate, given her current fatalism. So, we do know that Predictamancer works. We don't, however, know how it works or the line between prediction and manipulation.


I don't mean to offend, but we don't. We have hearsay. We know that people have said these things have happened. We have no way of actually confirming that it was actually capital P Predicted. Just because it came true doesn't make it a capital P Prediction. It could have been a really good guess. Now odds are it was a capital P Prediction, but we cannot prove it. There's a considerable distinction there.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that Predictamancy doesn't work. I firmly believe it does. But as far as solid proof of what has and hasn't been Predicted, we have no solid evidence of anything. We have hearsay and words from unreliable narrators.
"All warfare is based on deception" - Sun Tzu, Chapter 1, Line 18, The Art of War

"The principle of strategy is to know ten thousand things by having one thing." - Miyamoto Musashi, The Book of Earth, Go Rin No Sho
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 012

Postby drachefly » Mon Dec 05, 2011 9:51 pm

Well, let's put it this way. Wanda had been told that she'd attune. The prior probability of this was... mighty low, right? If that wasn't a capital-P prediction, it was a fantastically stupid lower-case p prediction.
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 012

Postby Housellama » Mon Dec 05, 2011 10:20 pm

drachefly wrote:Well, let's put it this way. Wanda had been told that she'd attune. The prior probability of this was... mighty low, right? If that wasn't a capital-P prediction, it was a fantastically stupid lower-case p prediction.


There are 100 marbles in a bag, 99 black and 1 white. I reach into the bag and pull out a marble and don't show it to you. I tell you it's black. Do you believe me? Probably. Can you prove the marble is black right now without any further information? No. Not without more information.

The difference between 99.9% and 100% is a very large amount. Yes. Odds are extremely high it was a Capital P prediction. But we can't prove it. Not based on what we have right now. That's all I'm saying.
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"The principle of strategy is to know ten thousand things by having one thing." - Miyamoto Musashi, The Book of Earth, Go Rin No Sho
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 012

Postby drachefly » Tue Dec 06, 2011 12:32 am

I'm not sure that's a valid analogy. You're using prior probability instead of posterior probability. It's more like,

There are 10^6 marbles in a bag, and 4 of them are white, the others are black. This is known to be true.
I have built up a reputation for making accurate predictions. Whether there is something to this is the notion to be tested. Note that in this context, such a claim is plausible.
I tell you, you're going to draw a white marble.
You do.
What's the posterior probability that I have a clue what I'm doing?

Now... proof? Well, evidence doesn't yield proof, except that certain hypotheses are false. It shifts the weight of credence.

Based just on the prediction of Wanda attuning an arkentool and the absence of thousands of equal failed predictions, the overwhelming weight of credence is on the notion that predictamancers are not entirely full of it. Entertaining the contrary notion has a massive explanatory power problem. And that's before we get to story logic.
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 012

Postby Housellama » Tue Dec 06, 2011 1:05 am

drachefly wrote:I'm not sure that's a valid analogy. You're using prior probability instead of posterior probability. It's more like,

There are 10^6 marbles in a bag, and 4 of them are white, the others are black. This is known to be true.
I have built up a reputation for making accurate predictions. Whether there is something to this is the notion to be tested. Note that in this context, such a claim is plausible.
I tell you, you're going to draw a white marble.
You do.
What's the posterior probability that I have a clue what I'm doing?

Now... proof? Well, evidence doesn't yield proof, except that certain hypotheses are false. It shifts the weight of credence.

Based just on the prediction of Wanda attuning an arkentool and the absence of thousands of equal failed predictions, the overwhelming weight of credence is on the notion that predictamancers are not entirely full of it. Entertaining the contrary notion has a massive explanatory power problem. And that's before we get to story logic.


Again, not what I'm saying. I believe that Predictamancy works. It's incredibly likely that was a Prediction (and for the record, I believe it was a Prediction). But we, the readers, can't prove it was based on the information given. We can make some very, very strong inferences, but inferences do not equal proof. I'm not talking about the Prediction itself. I'm talking about whether or not we can verify that the prediction was a Prediction.
"All warfare is based on deception" - Sun Tzu, Chapter 1, Line 18, The Art of War

"The principle of strategy is to know ten thousand things by having one thing." - Miyamoto Musashi, The Book of Earth, Go Rin No Sho
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