Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 010

[BCCroaker]

Or perhaps Delphie has seen Wanda as the sole survivor of a side (and wearing that outfit), so she's trying to make sure that side isn't hers. Rob said recently (though I don't think it's canon), that Predictamancers can see definite outcomes, but have no idea how they are arrived at.

[jkosta]

Delphi didn't say Wanda would end up switching sides to Haffaton.

She said that Olive Branch was fated to be Wanda's Chief Caster.

The obvious interpretation is that Wanda will switch sides. But we all know how tricky prophesies can be.

Maybe in a separate prophecy she saw Wanda wearing the raiment of Haffaton, and assumed this was confirmation that she would switch sides.

But Wanda was wearing the raiment on her own, without switching sides, and quickly changed the livery on it to Goodminton.

She also said that she was not destined to be Wanda's Chief caster for much longer, and assumed that was because Wanda would switch sides (turns out it was because Wanda was promoted).


If Goodminton captured Branch and made her chief caster, it would also fulfill the prophecy (as we know it).

It would also fulfill the prophecy if a 3rd party entered the stage and conquered both Goodminton and Haffaton, capturing all the casters, and making Branch their chief caster.

Or if both sides fell and the casters escaped to the Magic Kingdom, and were subsequently hired by another side, with Branch placed in charge of Wanda.



We don't know enough. And I think Delphi doesn't know how to interpret her own prophecies very well either. She seems to get brief glimpses of the future and spin her own interpretation on them. Unless there's even more she's not telling us. But the simple fact that she didn't predict Wanda would mess up all her plans says a lot. She really has no clue how things are going to turn out.


Wanda, by the way, should have ordered Delphi to not make any predictions without being ordered to do so. I think the fact that she apparently has free rein to make as many random predictions as she wants is part of the problem. It has caused her to know just enough to be dangerous to herself and her side, but not enough to actually do anything about it.

I don't think it has been pointed out that we don't know the name or profession of Faq's Chief Caster, either. A Florist would make quite a bit of sense, for a bubble kingdom.

[Lamech]

You know what? FAQ has gobs of caster's right? And powerful casters, head MK predictamancer now apparently and two master-classes. And quite a few escaped. In fact, I don't think we know of a single FAQ caster that failed to escape.

Here's an idea, most of FAQ's casters were units that turned willingly to join up with the FAQ experiment. That is how it had loads of casters despite its small size and non-expansionist tendencies.

[Ytaker]

I would say that one weakness of Predictamancy is that you have morons on your side who don't listen to you. That's why sides with Predictamancers don't always win.

Yeah, I'd imagine a side that respected their predictomancers could work a lot better. Parson could do well with one.

But I'd also imagine there is some opportunity cost to it. Any side that has a predictamancer doesn't have an extra shockamancer, or foolamancer, or something useful in battle. That means that, on average, other sides will have more force. A predictamancer has to work out a way to defeat sides which have bigger armies and more casters- they can predict things, but their side has less power to influence things. They also have only so much juice too, so they can't predict every problem which might arise.

[BrotherRool]

The interesting thing here is that young wanda is completely defiant of fate and old Wanda completely subservient so she's going to be served up a whole can of painful painful truth to break her down.

In a way this makes me think less of fate and predictomancy. It feels to me that co-incidences of events are going to put Wanda into her new mind set and that the predictomancer now is in her mindset because people love their discipline. Because there's narrative excuse it makes me feel that maybe things aren't actually as the two characters perceive them

There's no way to avoid the notion that prescient individuals like Leto II are really just choosing the future. Even in the case of documents like biblical prophecy, the assumption that the prophet (or God) "predicts" the future is arbitrary. From a literary and omnipotence point of view, it's simpler (Occam) to believe that the prophet or God is simply saying 'this is how I intend to do things in the future."

This is an entirely irrelevant rant but Occams razor is the most useless illogical thing in the history of building foundations of cloud.

In fact Occams Razor breaks Occams Razor by assuming there is some magical force that arranges the universe so that simpler things are more likely to be true.

In fact the phrases 'simpler' and 'more likely' have been almost entirely undefined in a logical trues/false statement context.

I was reading Anathem which proved that human beings could manipulate reality according to their will using Occams Razor and it occurred to me that the reason Occams Razor is useless is because the best counter to any Occams Razor argument is. Ah but can't you see it's simpler (Occam) to believe the God is making a statement from a specific point of space/time that occurs than he is making some conditional statement that relies on the creation of an imagination space that holds the possibility that something can and can't happen.

And yes I will make that argument. I will make the argument that for a being who exists at all points in time at once, it's much more complex and irregular to imagine that that being can make statements about things that will 'possibly' happen. (I'm not actually making that argument in the sense of wanting to support it, but trying to show how all you do with Occams Razor is rephrase the question to make it sound simple to you.)

What's more I believe that hasn't been a _single_ historical occurence to date where Occams Razor has led to a conclusion that has turned out to be true. The scientific modelling method is
1. Receive data
2. Create model that fits data (and here you use the Razor to decide which model you choose, which will be the one with the least variables)
3. Make predictions about new data
4. Collect new data, study where old data was wrong.
5. Create new model

And science has followed that pattern. Each time Occams Razor has supported the current model and every time it turns out there is a model with more sophistication behind it and the Razor was wrong.

In fact it isn't a tool for finding out the truth at all, it's the opposite of that. The only reason we even consider the idea that it might possibly be a method of discerning truth is that the Razor will always readjust to the new reality.

The Razor is the equivalent of Which am I thinking of?
A, B, C, D
And the Razor says, it must be the simplest, we pick A (this is an allegory, rather than making the statement that the Razor would pick A). We have no data to suggest A is wrong, the Razor says A is right => A is right and the Razor finds truth.
Oh dear we've just found out the answer is B. Well now the simplest answer is B so the razor suggests B. We have no evidence to suggest B is wrong, the razor suggests B is right => B is right and the razor is right.
Oh dear the answer is C. Oh well the razor means that the answer is C now.

In a practical example. We thought Newtonian gravity was correct, so the razor predicted newtonian gravity. We found new information, so the razor didn't predict newtonian gravity but relative gravity. We found new information so the razor now predicts newtonian gravity and quantum physics.

The Razor has never been right, but it keeps adapting to the new right answer so we think it is right.

It has no affect on discerning the truth of a statement. However it is useful, which is why we don't dismiss it out of hand. What it says is not ' the simplest answer is right' but 'the simplest answer we currently have is the most useful to be working with now' It's not a statement of truth, but practicality.


So yeah end rant.

[Kreistor]

In fact Occams Razor breaks Occams Razor by assuming there is some magical force that arranges the universe so that simpler things are more likely to be true.

False. The common definition of Occam's Razor has come to be known as "The simplest answer must be true," but that is a common mistake. The original definition, and the one we use on this forum is:

The answer that introduces the fewest elements is the most likely to be true.

"inroduced elements" are those that lack proof. Basically, someone made up something to fill a hole in their knowledge, in order to connect observations with unknown Rules.

"Simple" is subjective. There is great disagreement on what is "simple". That more common definition is contentious and useless. The original definition has purpose here, where you can identify the introduced elements and count them, and reject those that require large amounts of fanciful Rules.

[random_guy]

It seems like Wanda is a much more decent person at this point in time. She is genuinely loyal to Goodminton and cares about her brother and father. I am betting that whatever happens to her family made her more cynical and changed her outlook towards life and fate.

I also think the way she interacts with Stanley in Book 1 is similar to how Delphie interacts with Overlord Firebaugh. She refused an order from Stanley because she was convinced it would lead to Gobwin Knob's destruction. She also distracted him while Parson carried out his hit and run attack with the dwagons, so she was indirectly withholding information from Stanley, similar to how Delphie is currently withholding information from her overlord. Delphie sees everyone around her as idiots who do not understand how fate works, and Wanda also sees Stanley as a Tool that can be manipulated to achieve her goals.

[Neko]

Interesting thought - when Clay makes Luckamancy scrolls, does the roll that gets "stolen/shifted" come from the present (i.e. when the scroll is created) or from the future (when the scroll is actually used)? Wouldn't it be heartbreakingly ironic if Wanda's order for Clay to stop affecting rolls as he sees fit is the tipping point that causes Quisling and Frenemy to finally (formally) break alliance, and then the creation of scrolls "stores" good rolls Goodminton would have otherwise had in the upcoming turns leaving them only average and bad rolls every turn Clay writes scrolls?

Another thought - Wanda's order forbidding Delphi and Clay to go to MK unless expressly given permission will prevent them from escaping there when the side does fall.

[davesnothere]

... but... how come Delphie didn't see this coming?

[Dark Matter]

It's implied that "Fate" is a different thing for Wanda than for the average stabber.

Or perhaps the average stabber doesn't hang around with Predictmancers or have the ability to influence events on the scale she does.

"Cursed with greatness".

[Sieggy]

Ya know, the idea of having a Predictamancer's Luckamancer boyfriend pissed at me would give me pause. I think she needs to start covering her cute li'l butt, because I don't see Delphie taking this laying down. I have to wonder if part of the doom that will overtake Goodminton has to do with Delphie and Clay getting back at Wanda. I can only imagine the ways they might strike back at her surreptitiously, and Wanda might not even realize that she's being sabotaged. Though when she does figure it out, she would not be a pleasant person . . .

[Deuce]

I'm seeing two different, distinct branches of Predictamancy - Seeing the future and Setting the future. Both would have parameters that control what can be done modified by the variables of Caster Level, Juice Spent and Chance of Failure. For both actions - the modifiers effect range (time forward from the point of prediction) and ability to grasp and understand the implication of the Vision or Declaration. Seeing would give a glimpse of an otherwise unknown future, Setting would use the magic to make that event occur. For Seeing, high level casters spending a lot of juice can either look farther in the future, view a lager chunk of time or get a better understanding of the context. For Setting, more level and juice would result in a higher chance of the Set prediction coming to pass, in the way the Predictamancer expects.

This fits well with some of the other types of Magic we've seen - such as Dirtomancy both making tunnels and Golems. It also fits with the example of Wanda casting with a high chance of failure for a powerful result, in spite of her low level and limited juice. A Preditamancer in the same situation is in some ways at even greater risk, since Wanda would know at once that her casting failed - a Preditamancer may just be left a Prediction the think is right, and only find out later that they failed.

[badninja]

Delphie sees everyone around her as idiots who do not understand how fate works, and Wanda also sees Stanley as a Tool that can be manipulated to achieve her goals.

Note Wanda only sees, from what we know, Stanley this way unlike Delphie who saw everyone this way. This is the big difference.

[Ptharien's Flame]

Delphie sees everyone around her as idiots who do not understand how fate works, and Wanda also sees Stanley as a Tool that can be manipulated to achieve her goals.

Note Wanda only sees, from what we know, Stanley this way unlike Delphie who saw everyone this way. This is the big difference.

Wanda also sees Jillian that way, let's not forget.

[warriortribble]

We don't know enough. And I think Delphi doesn't know how to interpret her own prophecies very well either. She seems to get brief glimpses of the future and spin her own interpretation on them. Unless there's even more she's not telling us. But the simple fact that she didn't predict Wanda would mess up all her plans says a lot. She really has no clue how things are going to turn out.

My thought is that Delphi didn't interpret the future, but she accepted the future as inevitable. Because of this, she tried to shape the future in a way that would cause the least amount of damage to her and her side. Basically she's doing what present day Wanda would do.

http://www.erfworld.com/book-2-archive/ ... -04-03.png

[Fiendishrabbit]

Do you know what I really really really really want now?

A coloured image of Wanda in her current outfit but with a Commisars hat.

[joosy]

... but... how come Delphie didn't see this coming?

i think that this is where choice comes in. Delphie knows the eventual 'fate' of Wanda or at least her fate in the near future. She has been manipulating things so that she can bring about this fate with the least amount of impact to her side. She has been trying to keep Wanda out of the field since turn one and did her best to keep Wanda quiet during their last meeting with their Overlord. Delphie even warned Lord Firebaugh that to let her speak would cause the end of the side.. and as we are fated to read, will most likely come true with the result of the end of Goodfinger. Delphie and Clay are also trapped as, per Wanda's orders, they cannot retreat to the Magic Kingdom unless Wanda's command is overridden by Lord Firebaugh.

Also, it was interesting to have confirmation that the title of Chief for a caster is appointed and gives them command over the other casters. It appears that, just like there is a Chief Warlord, there is also a Chief Caster. Given Tommy's deference to Delphie I thought they were on equal footing, but going back to chapter one, Parson had command over Wanda so I believe that Chief Warlord can trump Chief Caster when needed.

[Megaduck]

Ok, possible issue here.

But now to find that it was a personal distaste for Croakamancy that kept him from considering her his "daughter?" Blood flowed to her face, a mechanism she understood down to the tissues and sinus cavities within her head, for Croakamancy was a beautiful art

This is the first time we hear about Blood in Erf world for a unit but we've seen multiple times in Book 1 and Book 2 that units don't Bleed. So, if Wanda was cut in the face why would she not bleed the blood that is there? Is there a reason for this or do you all think it's just a titanic error?

On a similer note, we find out Here that parson does in fact bleed. Relevant quote.

Before the battle he had nicked his ankle messing around with a pickaxe down in the tunnels with Sizemore. The cut, the bloodstain, and the little hole in his sock were all repaired the next morning. If there was anything about this world that was a gamer's wish come true, automatic grooming and laundry had to be it.

So say he goes into battle and takes damage, is everyone going to be shocked at all this weird red stuff pouring out of him?

[joosy]

Ok, possible issue here.

But now to find that it was a personal distaste for Croakamancy that kept him from considering her his "daughter?" Blood flowed to her face, a mechanism she understood down to the tissues and sinus cavities within her head, for Croakamancy was a beautiful art

This is the first time we hear about Blood in Erf world for a unit but we've seen multiple times in Book 1 and Book 2 that units don't Bleed. So, if Wanda was cut in the face why would she not bleed the blood that is there? Is there a reason for this or do you all think it's just a titanic error?

On a similer note, we find out Here that parson does in fact bleed. Relevant quote.

Before the battle he had nicked his ankle messing around with a pickaxe down in the tunnels with Sizemore. The cut, the bloodstain, and the little hole in his sock were all repaired the next morning. If there was anything about this world that was a gamer's wish come true, automatic grooming and laundry had to be it.

So say he goes into battle and takes damage, is everyone going to be shocked at all this weird red stuff pouring out of him?

I think there is blood in Erfworld - Transylvitians feed on it, apparently. Remember this is a game-like world so death is caused when you take enough damage to lower your health to zero or below. Unless your cut has a 'special' that adds damage over time, then you may 'bleed' but won't croak.

[kiyote]

Ok, possible issue here.

But now to find that it was a personal distaste for Croakamancy that kept him from considering her his "daughter?" Blood flowed to her face, a mechanism she understood down to the tissues and sinus cavities within her head, for Croakamancy was a beautiful art

This is the first time we hear about Blood in Erf world for a unit but we've seen multiple times in Book 1 and Book 2 that units don't Bleed. So, if Wanda was cut in the face why would she not bleed the blood that is there? Is there a reason for this or do you all think it's just a titanic error?

On a similer note, we find out Here that parson does in fact bleed. Relevant quote.

Before the battle he had nicked his ankle messing around with a pickaxe down in the tunnels with Sizemore. The cut, the bloodstain, and the little hole in his sock were all repaired the next morning. If there was anything about this world that was a gamer's wish come true, automatic grooming and laundry had to be it.

So say he goes into battle and takes damage, is everyone going to be shocked at all this weird red stuff pouring out of him?

Looking at that picture of Adam Antium, there is something staining his shirt. Maybe Erfworlders bleed, but not as much?