Balerion wrote:Sure Kriestor. Rob decided to write a combat sequence in a text update (which is meant to show us details of the world we would miss otherwise) that is such an aberration on the bell curve that we have the characters involved all sure there was an outside force in play, but it turns out everyone was just rolling weirdly. And if that is what you want to see, fine. Not going to waste more of my time on a topic that you clearly have made your mind up over already.
I think the confusion here is that there was no Luckamancers here. Clay never claimed that everything balances in all cases. What he said was that Luckamancy, when used by Luckamancers, had to balance.
And my point on statistics is that you WILL find a balance if you look for it, given a large enough sample space. that you can find one is not evidence of a natural Luckamancy effect. IN fact, I beleive he said specifically that you're wrong:
Book 0 Episode 7 wrote:Something about it struck Wanda as terribly wrong. “The Titans...play dice? And we must do what the dice say? We flourish or perish at random?”
Clay was shaking his head. “No, no...I think it’s the opposite.” He smiled, as someone who was speaking on a topic of great familiarity. “The dice describe the world. They don’t determine it. A Mathamancer can tell you how many dice will be rolled, how many points’ll be lost when you’re wounded. He’ll tell you what’ll probably happen, and possibly happen, and what can’t happen. But your choices still make it happen.”
Here Clay is saying that the Dice do not force people to success or failure. If the dice all balanced the way you describe, then the Dice would describe the world. If the dice must balance, then you must act to ensure the balance can be maintained. Chance is simply not like that.
Book 0 Episode 7 wrote:"Honestly?" said Clay, "that's the nice way to say it. Whatt'm saying is that maybe that die would have come up 4s three times anyway. So maybe my spell did nothing at all, at least so far. That's why I say it'll roll high 'for a little while.' I don't know. But here's what I do know. And maybe it's kind of a secret of my discipline but I think it's important, and I wanna tell you."
Aberrant results are not an indication of anything, especially when compared to other aberrant results. Clay denies it. It's random, unless affected by a Luckamancer.
But my point on Artemis stands. She is shown consistently throughout her career to have bad luck in critical situations. There is no balance for that shown at any other time. That you want to attribute the Knights success to her failure is not consistent with her entire career of failure. Why isn't it countered by the bad luck Antium suffered being hit by his own Side's arrow? That's great luck for GK that balances poor luck for Artemis.
Clay tells us that Luckamancy steals numbers from somewhere, and he is clear that it doesn't always steal numbers from the same Side that the Luckamancer boosted. It can steal from the enemy, too, giving them bad luck and his own Side good.
But he is talking about Luckamancy as he cast it. At no time does he say that the world balances all the numbers at all times. That one person's good luck causes another's bad. Luckamancy spells balance, in some way, but he does not extend that to a Natural effect, and I believe that it would grossly interefere with Mathamancy if it did, since Mathamancers would need to deal with good luck in one case causing bad luck in another, unassociated calculation. A Mathamancer, if asked the odds of those knights being successful, would have to associate previous results with their efforts and diminish their chances if Unluck had previously been evident.
My point is that Luck happens, because Chance happens, and in seeking a balance I guarantee you will find it: but it's not causal. Clay was talking about Luckamancy itself, as used by Luckamancers, and his statements about the Dice state clearly that Mathamancy relies on those nunmbers being unpredictable. He never told us that the numbers of the world all balanced out, so looking for a balance to Artemis' specific unluck in one instance after a long life of bad luck is not supported by his discussion.