Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Lipkin » Fri Jun 27, 2014 6:55 am

drachefly wrote:Uh, you agree with both Lipkin and Mortissimus, so no bet there.

I won't take that bet, but I am 90% confident that Forecastle's learning results in effective improvement in his performance at sea.

Sure, I'd be surprised if that wasn't the way things turned out. But I don't think he'll get a special.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Fri Jun 27, 2014 11:17 am

I'm 75% confident he could, but don't know whether we'll find that out, so I don't know how to structure such a bet.

If he extensively continues training (a week, say), I'm 60% confident that he will gain the seafarer special at his next level (30q max, if we see him level after a week of training and before the end of the story). <- withdrawn
Last edited by drachefly on Mon Jun 30, 2014 9:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby MadZuri » Sun Jun 29, 2014 12:10 am

WTH, I'll take both of your bets on a long shot. My 20 q's versus your combined 10 that he gains the seafarer special. This is of course including the possibility that he gets a ruler or CWL manual upgrade. Pretty sure I have the budget to afford that. Too drunk to calculate (might be the reason I'm willing to take the risk) but this thread needs more love and attention.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Sun Jun 29, 2014 1:12 am

MadZuri wrote:WTH, I'll take both of your bets on a long shot. My 20 q's versus your combined 10 that he gains the seafarer special. This is of course including the possibility that he gets a ruler or CWL manual upgrade. Pretty sure I have the budget to afford that. Too drunk to calculate (might be the reason I'm willing to take the risk) but this thread needs more love and attention.

Who are you talking to? mortissimus and Lipkin have both already had their bets taken by CarniDollMancer, and would have been their combined 20 to your 10.

Nakedkali wrote:Mortissimus's bet has been taken, so I will take Lipkin's bet. Artemis was pretty determined, but we never saw her get a special. I think it's not possible.

CarniDollMancer took Lipkin's bet as well as Mortissiums's. Also, as Drachefly pointed out, you agree with Mortissiums and Lipkin that he won't get a special.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby MadZuri » Sun Jun 29, 2014 10:51 am

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:Who are you talking to? mortissimus and Lipkin have both already had their bets taken by CarniDollMancer, and would have been their combined 20 to your 10.
Evidently nobody, disregard last post.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby khamul » Mon Jul 14, 2014 12:41 pm

I will offer 10Q to your 10Q that the way Anchorbar is sinking ships is *not* a seafarer special inversion.
By a seafarer special inversion I mean some effect that causes non-seafarers to become seafarers and vice versa.

I will offer 10Q to your 20Q that the effect sinking ships is *not* a magical effect that only targets seafarer units.
Specifically, I mean something like a siren song that controls the minds of units with seafarer, but not those without. Rules exploits would not count, and seafarer unit superstition would not count as I consider these mechanical system effects, not magical effects. Bet is null and void if both parties agree that it's not clear either way.

I will offer 20Q to your 10Q that a Quakken is a giant duck.

Bet is null and void if we don't find out by the end of the current Forecastle story (unlikely as that seems - except the Quakken one).
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Nakedkali » Sun Jul 27, 2014 4:47 pm

I'll bet someone 5 quatloo that the "short" way is either to Tramennis or Stanley (who are both short), and not to Charlie. 'strue there's no direct link to Stanley. but it'd be the least dangerous.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby bpzinn » Sun Jul 27, 2014 9:17 pm

So way back in page 32 I made a bet with Likwik (my 15q to his 10q) that the standard 3 way linkups we have have seen so far would be exceeded in some way before book 4.

bet here viewtopic.php?f=12&t=2815&start=620#p104453

In the first page of book 3, Issac contributed Lookamancy to a link to create a camera.

from here: viewtopic.php?f=12&t=6632#p102565

We have proof that Issac was popped a Thinkamancer. That is, for the first time we have seen the contribution of a casters other-than-primary magical discipline. Something some people on the forum have even argued against being possible. I think this counts as "exceeded in some way."
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Lilwik » Sun Jul 27, 2014 11:12 pm

bpzinn wrote:We have proof that Issac was popped a Thinkamancer. That is, for the first time we have seen the contribution of a casters other-than-primary magical discipline. Something some people on the forum have even argued against being possible. I think this counts as "exceeded in some way."
Unfortunately you didn't say that when the bet was made. What you said was, "All tricaster linkups thus far have been 3 disciplines, one of which was a thinkamancer holding it together. I bet this will be exceeded in some way before the beginning of book 4." We still haven't seen a tricaster linkup with more than 3 disciplines, so the bet shouldn't be settled. It looks like Parson is going to be doing a lot of experimentation with links in this book, so you might only need patience, but I'm willing to cancel the bet if you regret not mentioning primary disciplines in the wording of the bet.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Th Revanchist » Sun Jul 27, 2014 11:37 pm

I think I'd like to start a pool. Probably.

I am placing 10q in this pool, and betting that the Tchotchke, or another unit of that specific type, will be croaked/destroyed during its first real* mission.

*for this bet, I'm defining "real" as "potentially dangerous". Spying on Stanley would not be dangerous. Spying on Charlie would. Spying on the Carnymancers would. Do I need to clarify it further? (This is assuming the Tchotchke is to be used for spying, of course)
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby wih » Mon Jul 28, 2014 6:00 am

Wasn't there a pool about the opening of Book 3?
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Tue Jul 29, 2014 1:49 pm

There was, and it resolved. Bladestorm won.
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