Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Whispri » Sun May 04, 2014 10:08 am

Mrtyuh wrote:I'd be fine with that, but I don't want to be denying others the opportunity to claim bets, especially since I'm basically betting for a draw. So, let's say that if nobody else has claimed this bet within 48 hours of the timestamp on this reply, I'll accept your wager.

So are we on?
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Sun May 04, 2014 9:45 pm

Mrtyuh wrote:I bet 20q that Queen Jillian will use the Western Giants to attack Transylvito before the end of Book 3.

I bet 20q that NuFaq will be destroyed by Charlie, utilizing the Western Giants in part or whole, before the end of Book 4.


Yoink! Accepted.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Mrtyuh » Mon May 05, 2014 1:41 am

Whispri wrote:
Mrtyuh wrote:I'd be fine with that, but I don't want to be denying others the opportunity to claim bets, especially since I'm basically betting for a draw. So, let's say that if nobody else has claimed this bet within 48 hours of the timestamp on this reply, I'll accept your wager.

So are we on?

Yep, we're on.

One other thing which everyone with a Digdoug bet may want to consider. Rob said on Facebook that he is planning 2 more Digdoug episodes before moving on to the next backer story. He also said that he will come back to Digdoug at some point in the future. So, we may want to decide for the 'end of Digdoug' bets if that means this round of Digdoug or the end of the next round. It's possible that some of the things we're expecting to get resolved won't in the next 2 updates. For example, if there is a traitor, that may be something Rob decides to leave unresolved for now. Personally, I'm fine waiting until the end of round 2, but I can't speak for anyone else.
मृत्युः सर्वहरश्चाहमुद्भवश्च भविष्यताम् ।
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby mortissimus » Fri May 09, 2014 6:16 pm

10q on Charlescom taking the City of Homekey while Digdoug was unconscious. Bet is cancelled if we don't find out what happened before the end of the current story about Digdoug.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Godzfirefly » Fri May 09, 2014 6:17 pm

mortissimus wrote:10q on Charlescom taking the City of Homekey while Digdoug was unconscious. Bet is cancelled if we don't find out what happened before the end of the current story about Digdoug.

Accepted!
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Lilwik » Wed May 14, 2014 1:46 am

I bet 20q to 10q that Dove has told a lie to Digdoug or a Homekey unit somewhere in the Digdoug story in Episode 20 or earlier, and we will discover that lie. I will consider the bet lost if Digdoug's current adventure comes to a clear end without revealing Dove's lie.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Wed May 14, 2014 1:51 am

Lilwik wrote:I bet 20q to 10q that Dove has told a lie to Digdoug or a Homekey unit somewhere in the Digdoug story in Episode 20 or earlier, and we will discover that lie. I will consider the bet lost if Digdoug's current adventure comes to a clear end without revealing Dove's lie.

Hmmm, you're offering good odds on a fairly specific thing, so I'll take it, even though I think there is a fairly good chance that you're right. I'm more betting on us not learning about it, than that she didn't lie. I'd like to add a stipulation that lies of omission don't count. For instance, she never said she wasn't working for charlie or passing him information (unless it is revealed that she did say that 'off camera' as it were).

Still, I can already almost see the words on the page "Oh, I did lie about one little thing though..." and then it will be something silly and inconsequential and I'll lose over it :P

Anyway, should be fun.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Lipkin » Wed May 14, 2014 2:32 am

Lilwik wrote:I bet 20q to 10q that Dove has told a lie to Digdoug or a Homekey unit somewhere in the Digdoug story in Episode 20 or earlier, and we will discover that lie. I will consider the bet lost if Digdoug's current adventure comes to a clear end without revealing Dove's lie.

Except that this is the end of Digdoug's current adventure. Rob said Digdoug part 1 had two more installments, and that was two updates ago. The next update will be the start of a short story like Lord Crush. So unless you mean by the end of the DigDoug narrative, this bet can't be made.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Lilwik » Wed May 14, 2014 2:56 am

Lipkin wrote:Except that this is the end of Digdoug's current adventure. Rob said Digdoug part 1 had two more installments, and that was two updates ago. The next update will be the start of a short story like Lord Crush. So unless you mean by the end of the DigDoug narrative, this bet can't be made.
Digdoug's adventure isn't over until he either gets some closure with Homekey's fate or moves on and settles into a new life in the Magic Kingdom, or something like that. This may be officially the end of a story, but the story obviously isn't really over so that's just an official fiction at most, especially when we know there is more Digdoug to come.

I also accept the stipulation that lies of omission don't count. They aren't really lies anyway.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Lipkin » Wed May 14, 2014 3:20 am

Lilwik wrote:
Lipkin wrote:Except that this is the end of Digdoug's current adventure. Rob said Digdoug part 1 had two more installments, and that was two updates ago. The next update will be the start of a short story like Lord Crush. So unless you mean by the end of the DigDoug narrative, this bet can't be made.
Digdoug's adventure isn't over until he either gets some closure with Homekey's fate or moves on and settles into a new life in the Magic Kingdom, or something like that. This may be officially the end of a story, but the story obviously isn't really over so that's just an official fiction at most, especially when we know there is more Digdoug to come.

I also accept the stipulation that lies of omission don't count. They aren't really lies anyway.

You'll need to reach an agreement on what "end of adventure" means Taikei.

Since conceivably, Doug could continue to pay for stories about Digdoug, his adventure may never finish.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Wed May 14, 2014 8:59 am

I didn't realize episode 20 had posted yet when I accepted the bet, and having read it, I'm fairly sure the Digdoug story is more or less over. I mean, future things could happen, but that seems to be about the level of wrapup we got from Crush. I suppose I can still take the bet with the following time stipulations: If any more episodes are posted immediately (the story continues right now, even a single episode (21)) then we'll allow the end of those to be when the bet is decided. If there aren't any new digdoug episodes within the next year, then we'll call the bet over then. If there is a Digdoug episode (or fairly firm announcement of it) within the next year, then we'll give it till the end of that series to decide. Sound fair enough?
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Lilwik » Wed May 14, 2014 2:55 pm

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:I mean, future things could happen, but that seems to be about the level of wrapup we got from Crush.
No, Lord Crush had an ending where all the loose ends were tied up and there was no need for more episodes. Digdoug leaves us with only questions and doubts. Is Dove honest with Digdoug? What happened to Homekey? It's possible that this really is the end of the story and Rob Balder never intends to answer any of the questions this story has left open. The next Digdoug story could take place many turns later and not mention Dove or Homekey, and the questions we have about them are just for us to try to answer ourselves. If that turns out to be true then I'll be very disappointed and would concede the bet.

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:I suppose I can still take the bet with the following time stipulations: If any more episodes are posted immediately (the story continues right now, even a single episode (21)) then we'll allow the end of those to be when the bet is decided. If there aren't any new digdoug episodes within the next year, then we'll call the bet over then. If there is a Digdoug episode (or fairly firm announcement of it) within the next year, then we'll give it till the end of that series to decide. Sound fair enough?
Naturally the winner of the bet isn't going to be decided by how long it takes Rob Balder to finish the story. Just to be clear, if he takes over a year to get back to Digdoug then that means the bet is cancelled. (Maybe even make it 6 months. I dislike long bets.) Would he really do that to us? I want to read the other Kickstarter stories, but it would be cruel to leave us without a conclusion on Digdoug for months. I'm sure the backers who pledged for stories would agree.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Godzfirefly » Wed May 14, 2014 3:01 pm

FYI: Rob has clarified that there are at least two more episodes in this arc.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Wed May 14, 2014 9:56 pm

Godzfirefly wrote:FYI: Rob has clarified that there are at least two more episodes in this arc.

I think that sounds like a decent time frame for the bet. If Dove doesn't admit to any kind of lie by the end of those two episodes, I'd take that as that she didn't, or at least is never likely to admit to it.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Lilwik » Wed May 14, 2014 10:32 pm

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:I think that sounds like a decent time frame for the bet. If Dove doesn't admit to any kind of lie by the end of those two episodes, I'd take that as that she didn't, or at least is never likely to admit to it.
Rob Balder said this story had two episodes left two episodes ago. I'm not going to commit to two episodes now just because he's said it again. I have no doubt that we'll know it when this story actually ends. Aside from that, the bet isn't about Dove admitting anything; the bet is about us discovering that Dove has lied, whether she admits it or not.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Kandarin » Wed May 14, 2014 11:33 pm

20 quatloos says that the following will eventually be established as substantially true:

Healomancy, like Luckamancy, is not free and borrows numbers from the universe that someone must pay. Erfworld's perpetual state of endless war and Erfworld's ability to heal and clean every living being at dawn are intrinsically linked, and if Parson ever finds a way to stop the former condition, the latter will end as well and Erfworlders will begin to age, sicken and die like Stupidworlders.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Whispri » Thu May 15, 2014 12:15 pm

Kandarin wrote:20 quatloos says that the following will eventually be established as substantially true:

Healomancy, like Luckamancy, is not free and borrows numbers from the universe that someone must pay. Erfworld's perpetual state of endless war and Erfworld's ability to heal and clean every living being at dawn are intrinsically linked, and if Parson ever finds a way to stop the former condition, the latter will end as well and Erfworlders will begin to age, sicken and die like Stupidworlders.

I'll bite.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Thu May 15, 2014 4:29 pm

Lilwik wrote:
Taikei no Yuurei wrote:I think that sounds like a decent time frame for the bet. If Dove doesn't admit to any kind of lie by the end of those two episodes, I'd take that as that she didn't, or at least is never likely to admit to it.
Rob Balder said this story had two episodes left two episodes ago. I'm not going to commit to two episodes now just because he's said it again. I have no doubt that we'll know it when this story actually ends. Aside from that, the bet isn't about Dove admitting anything; the bet is about us discovering that Dove has lied, whether she admits it or not.

Well, I think we'll be able to agree on when this is complete when it actually is. If it turns out to be 3 episodes or whatever, then that's fine. Otherwise, I think we more or less have an understanding here, and yeah, lied, not admitted to a lie, I just figure that's going to be about the only case we'll be able to find it out.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby mortissimus » Sat May 31, 2014 6:12 am

Whispri bet mortissimus 4q that Dove Barstool's plan in Digdoug part 1 will work.


I think I won this one, even though the terms are rather imprecise.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Godzfirefly » Sat May 31, 2014 12:42 pm

Godzfirefly wrote:
mortissimus wrote:10q on Charlescom taking the City of Homekey while Digdoug was unconscious. Bet is cancelled if we don't find out what happened before the end of the current story about Digdoug.

Accepted!

It looks like this is cancelled, since we don't know if Charlescom or Delkey or Numloch did the final deed, unless you want to extend the bet until the end of Part 2, which is a LONG way away.


Also, I'd bet Bladestorm 25q that Posbrake would survive the story. I accept that he has not and yield the quatloos.

My last bet that applied to this story was with Shai_hulud regarding whether or not Dove was actively trying to help Homekey, whether she succeeds or not. Specifically...

Shai_hulud wrote:
Godzfirefly wrote:Shai_hulud's bet was that Dove is going to screw/gyp Homekey. To me, that suggests more than just accidental poor judgement or inability to make a difference. It suggests actively not doing what she was hired to do in order to either gain a benefit for herself, benefit another, or hurt Homekey. My bet is that this is not the case. If Shai_hulud disagrees about the meaning of his/her own bet, I'll be willing to bet based on the definition he intended.

Yeah, my intended meaning was that her original intent was, and is, to con them to gain resources without doing the work she was hired for, either because she has no desire to do so, or has no ability (fraud in other words). This was only about her original intent though, and if she changes her mind later (say during an attack) that would still in my mind count as her having been a con, just one who did a heel face turn. Thus the bet is only that her original intent was to commit fraud, not the final outcome. Does this seem acceptable to you?


I would like to claim this, since it seems unlikely that the story will reveal any duplicity on Dove's part during Part 2, she didn't end with any resources more than she started, and every stated attempt to help has acted the way it was supposed to, to the extent that she was able to control it. In addition, she isn't even trying to prevent Digdoug from leaving in less than a single day, so she's arguably coming out more-or-less even on the Rand that she spotted him without him asking. But, as the bet was about original intent, for which we only have Dove's stated word as evidence, I'll let Shai_hulud decide if the bet has been decided or not.
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