Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Sat Jun 29, 2013 8:25 pm

GJC wrote:5 Quatloos to your 10 that Parson's plan involves using Decrypted troops to directly attack MK casters, with the aim of gaining a degree of control over the MK.


I'll take that.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Shai_hulud » Sat Jun 29, 2013 8:58 pm

GJC wrote:
Has anyone bet that Olive is actually innocent in book 0? If not, then I'll bet 20Q that she is actually innocent.


What definition of "innocent" are we using here?

Edit: I mean, given her actions thus far, I can't really see her being innocent unless she was under mind control or at gunpoint; didn't have a choice.

Sir_Dr_D wrote:Well I guess the meaning innocent in Erfworld,would be that all her actions have been for the good of her side. It might be possible.
I mean innocent, as in not really the "villain" of the story, even if she really killed people. Like maybe she didn't really attack goodminton, or didn't really betray charlie but was turned by the flowers after Tina and Maxwell made them in the link with her. You know? Not the bad guy/antagonist, just seen that way by Wanda.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby GJC » Sat Jun 29, 2013 9:42 pm

I'll take that.

Figured. Just to clarify, I do mean only MK shenanigans (Vanna, for example, wouldn't count), but defensive measures actions (say, having a Knight kill Jeftichew if he tries to force his way in) would count, provided they actually take place. Is that still acceptable to you?

I mean innocent, as in not really the "villain" of the story, even if she really killed people. Like maybe she didn't really attack goodminton, or didn't really betray charlie but was turned by the flowers after Tina and Maxwell made them in the link with her. You know? Not the bad guy/antagonist, just seen that way by Wanda.


It feels like that's either a question of interpretation, or you're throwing Quatloo away.

I'll bet you 20 to your 10 that, in the course of the trial it is not proven that:
1: Olive was not responsible for the attack on Goodminton (that is to say, she didn't give the orders herself)
2: That Olive was under the flowers' influence when deciding to imprison her Overlady or attack Charlie.

Zat seem fair?
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Sun Jun 30, 2013 7:21 am

GJC wrote:
I'll take that.
Figured. Just to clarify, I do mean only MK shenanigans (Vanna, for example, wouldn't count), but defensive measures actions (say, having a Knight kill Jeftichew if he tries to force his way in) would count, provided they actually take place. Is that still acceptable to you?

I took you to mean that his plan does not involve decrypting troops within the MK. That seems like a pretty bright line. If a croaked, nondecrypted, nonuncroaked knight somehow kills Jeftichew by falling on him or something, I don't think that ought to count.

Also, if they're in the middle of doing something else and carnymancers break in and Wanda reflexively decrypts someone to defend her, that's not a part of the plan.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Shai_hulud » Sun Jun 30, 2013 1:22 pm

GJC wrote:It feels like that's either a question of interpretation, or you're throwing Quatloo away.
Yeah, sure. But it's all for fun anyway.

GJC wrote:I'll bet you 20 to your 10 that, in the course of the trial it is not proven that:
1: Olive was not responsible for the attack on Goodminton (that is to say, she didn't give the orders herself)
2: That Olive was under the flowers' influence when deciding to imprison her Overlady or attack Charlie.

Zat seem fair?
Sure does. We have a deal then.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Whispri » Sat Jul 20, 2013 9:48 am

Whispri wrote:
bladestorm wrote:I'll wager 5Q that Artemis does not get decrypted by Wanda.

Okay, I'll bite. *Snap* *Snap*

As much as I'd like it to be otherwise, it looks like Artemis is up and about, but on the wrong Side of the Magick Kingdom Portal. So she's alive and well once again. Or unalive and well for the first time if you prefer.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Mon Jul 22, 2013 10:05 am

Hmm. It seems that by my terms, I've lost my bet with GJC, but not yet by his terms. I expect he'll win in the medium term, though, so I'm provisionally handing it to him. Maybe I shouldn't - we still don't know how this is going to go down.

Going through and checking for other newly-resolved bets.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Tue Jul 23, 2013 12:51 am

Whispri wrote:
Whispri wrote:
bladestorm wrote:I'll wager 5Q that Artemis does not get decrypted by Wanda.

Okay, I'll bite. *Snap* *Snap*

As much as I'd like it to be otherwise, it looks like Artemis is up and about, but on the wrong Side of the Magick Kingdom Portal. So she's alive and well once again. Or unalive and well for the first time if you prefer.

Could be foolamancy, it might not have happened yet. Might need another page or two to confirm that.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Tue Jul 23, 2013 1:00 am

I'd like to bet 10q that no more than 2 units die in MK by the end of the turn.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby bladestorm » Tue Jul 23, 2013 12:02 pm

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:I'd like to bet 10q that no more than 2 units die in MK by the end of the turn.

I'll take that. This close to the end, there shouldn't be a stalemate. The carnies have stirred up some trouble, and are ready to rumble. They'll at least dust two lower infantry in the skirmish. or we will find out if the portal zaps things going both ways.

Besides, I think I saw at least two of them wearing a red shirt. Never wear red when you are going to a strange place.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Tue Jul 23, 2013 3:40 pm

bladestorm wrote:
Taikei no Yuurei wrote:I'd like to bet 10q that no more than 2 units die in MK by the end of the turn.

I'll take that. This close to the end, there shouldn't be a stalemate. The carnies have stirred up some trouble, and are ready to rumble. They'll at least dust two lower infantry in the skirmish. or we will find out if the portal zaps things going both ways.

Besides, I think I saw at least two of them wearing a red shirt. Never wear red when you are going to a strange place.


All Decrypted wear black/red as their colors. Which is fitting really. :)

Also, anyone want to bet me 5q that if anyone dies in MK this turn, Jojo is among the casualties? So for you to win, there would need to be at least one death in MK this turn, and Jojo would have to survive the turn (incapped/captured counts as surviving)
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Thu Jul 25, 2013 10:12 am

I offer 10q each to up to 5 people that Banhammer did not just disband Jillian's mount out from under her.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Fjord » Thu Jul 25, 2013 12:07 pm

drachefly wrote:I offer 10q each to up to 5 people that Banhammer did not just disband Jillian's mount out from under her.


I take that.
My 10 is on the Mount being dismounted (by Banhammer)
Your 10 is on anything else happening

Agree?
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Thu Jul 25, 2013 2:15 pm

Well, yes. I just offered that exact bet, with dismount as 'disband'. I think I'll take my version, since taking yours would be essentially stealing.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Lilwik » Thu Jul 25, 2013 2:52 pm

drachefly wrote:I offer 10q each to up to 5 people that Banhammer did not just disband Jillian's mount out from under her.
I'll take that bet. None of the other options are half as likely.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Thu Jul 25, 2013 4:43 pm

drachefly wrote:I offer 10q each to up to 5 people that Banhammer did not just disband Jillian's mount out from under her.

I'll get in on that as well. Win or lose, this'll likely be one of the fastest resolved bets on here.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby ftl » Thu Jul 25, 2013 5:10 pm

Taikei no Yuurei wrote:
drachefly wrote:I offer 10q each to up to 5 people that Banhammer did not just disband Jillian's mount out from under her.

I'll get in on that as well. Win or lose, this'll likely be one of the fastest resolved bets on here.


Don't jinx the update schedule!!!!
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Thu Jul 25, 2013 9:57 pm

TheLiontamer wrote:I'll put 5q that Jack uses Foolamancy to somehow interfere with the disbanding order, making Banhammer either disband the wrong unit, or none at all.

I'll take that.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby zilfallon » Fri Jul 26, 2013 7:43 am

Seems like I'm a bit late.

I bet 10q on Banhammer attempting to disband Jillian and failing to do so.

Anyone taking this?
rkyeun wrote:Roses are red.
Violets are blue.

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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Nueamin » Fri Jul 26, 2013 8:44 am

drachefly wrote:I offer 10q each to up to 5 people that Banhammer did not just disband Jillian's mount out from under her.


Ill Take one of those
zilfallon wrote:Seems like I'm a bit late.

I bet 10q on Banhammer attempting to disband Jillian and failing to do so.

Anyone taking this?
I'll take this very similar bet also
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